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VOL 8 | NUM 22 | 3 February 2026
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IBERIA | 26 January - 1 February 2026
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Iberian market disconnected from the rest of Europe with the first negative price of 2026 earlier than any previous year
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 23/MWh last week, registering a decrease of -63.8% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 63.6/MWh). This weekly price was 64% lower than 2024 (EUR 63.7/MWh) and 68% lower than in 2023 (EUR 71.9/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 72.6/MWh, -27% lower than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 99.8/MWh) and 3% higher than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 70.8/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by -5.3%, reaching 6.73 TWh, compared to the 7.11 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Hydro generation increased by 3.2 pp, followed by wind (1.7 pp)
- Solar PV decreased by -2.9 pp, followed by cogeneration & others (-1.1 pp)
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Global renewable energy share increased from 66.9% to 68.6% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Prices were completely decoupled from the rest of Europe throughout the week, with Portugal also separating from Spain more often than usual. Hourly prices were highly volatile: although the overall level remained low, strong morning and afternoon ramps repeatedly pushed prices to peak levels. Spain recorded prices at or below EUR 0/MWh 41% of the time, and the market reached its first negative price of 2026, earlier than in any previous year.
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The weekly maximum was EUR 131.8/MWh, reached on Sunday at 8:15 p.m. Minimum price, EUR -0.5/MWh was reached on Saturday between 11:45 a.m. and 12:00 p.m., coupled with Portugal.
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The SWE grid coupling was 0%, lower than recorded the previous week, 34%.
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- Spain-Portugal: 73%
- Spain-France: 1%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 0%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 23/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 20.9/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 17.3/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 111.5/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 7.0 GW, with all the nuclear fleet operating
- Hydraulic generation provided night-time peak generation, with relevant baseload generation. The hourly average production was 8.2 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 4.3 GW, with weekly maximum values of 9.5 GW on Wednesday at 8 p.m.
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- Wind was the first source of electricity during 83% of the week, followed by hydro (10%) and solar PV (7%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 58% and 76% of total generation, a tighter variation than observed in the previous week (35% and 76%). Wind's maximum share reached 56% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 34%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 2.6 TWh, 1% lower than the previous week
- Solar PV generation was 0.5 TWh, 32.9% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 13.8/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 13.5/MWh
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Spain
EUR 24.9/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 18.8/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices rose through the week as tensions between the US and Iran increased, raising fears of possible military action and supply disruptions. Prices were also supported by a major winter storm in the US that forced producers to shut in oil and gas output. A brief dip on Tuesday followed news that Kazakhstan would restart production at its Tengiz field, but the upward trend returned as geopolitical risks intensified and the dollar weakened. Brent reached new four‑month highs mid‑week and, despite easing slightly on Friday, was still heading for one of its strongest monthly gains in years. Over the week, settlement prices rose from USD 64.77/bbl on Monday to USD 69.32/bbl on Friday.
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European gas prices started with a 10‑month high on Monday, when TTF briefly reached EUR 43.38/MWh after an unplanned outage at Norway’s Åsgard field and a strong cold spell lifted demand. Prices remained supported by concerns over US LNG supply and low EU storage levels (~43%). After a brief dip on Wednesday due to higher wind forecasts and expectations of improved LNG availability, the market rebounded again on Thursday and Friday as storage remained low and competition for flexible LNG with Asia increased. Overall, TTF settlements rose from EUR 37.41/MWh on Monday to EUR 39.29/MWh on Friday.
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European carbon prices fell sharply this week, dropping to a seven‑week low as profit‑taking and fears of a potential EU–US trade clash weighed on the market. Investment funds cut their net long position by 11% to 112.5m tons, the biggest reduction in nine months. The Dec‑26 contract slid from EUR 87.13/t on Monday to EUR 81.26/t on Friday, after briefly touching EUR 80.61/t, its lowest level since late October.
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Finally, power futures decreased. Q2 26 closed decreasing 7.4% at EUR 34.8/MWh, while Q3 26 decreased by 3.2% to EUR 63.5/MWh. Q4 26 decreased by 0.3% to EUR 71.1/MWh. For annual contracts, Cal 27 decreased by 1.4% to EUR 55.2/MWh, and Cal 28 decreased by 1.4% to EUR 54.8/MWh.
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