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VOL 8 | NUM 21 | 27 January 2026
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IBERIA | 19 - 25 January 2026
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Dear readers, sorry for arriving a little late — but just like in the power system, the best results sometimes need a bit more time to generate
Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Rising wind generation drove Day‑Ahead prices sharply lower than previous week after Monday’s peak
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 63.6/MWh last week, registering a decrease of -42.2% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 110.1/MWh). This weekly price was 38% lower than 2024 (EUR 103.1/MWh) and 10% lower than in 2023 (EUR 71/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 85.1/MWh, -22% lower than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 108.9/MWh) and 21% higher than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 70.5/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 6.1%, reaching 7.11 TWh, compared to the 6.7 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Wind generation share skyrocketed by 18.7 pp
- Resulting in the decrease of gas (-8.2 pp), imports (-4.5 pp), hydro (-3.0 pp) and cogeneration & others (-1.3 pp)
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Global renewable energy share increased from 52.2% to 66.9% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Hourly prices fell steadily through the week. After the peaks in the beginning of the week near EUR 200/MWh, rising wind generation pushed prices lower, with levels staying below EUR 100/MWh from Wednesday and dropping to under EUR 40/MWh on Sunday. From Thursday, the Iberian Peninsula decoupled from France. While Iberian day‑ahead prices stayed above EUR 0/MWh, the intraday market briefly hit EUR –20/MWh on Sunday.
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The weekly maximum was EUR 200/MWh, reached on Monday at 6:45 p.m., coupled with Portugal and France. Minimum price, EUR 0/MWh was reached on Sunday between at 12:45 p.m. and 3:30 p.m., coupled with Portugal.
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The SWE grid coupling was 34%, lower than recorded the previous week, 61%.
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- Spain-Portugal: 99%
- Spain-France: 34%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 34%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 63.6/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 57.2/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 63.4/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 102.8/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 7.0 GW, with all the nuclear fleet operating
- Hydraulic generation provided night-time peak generation, with some baseload generation. The hourly average production was 7.4 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 4.9 GW, with weekly maximum values of 14.1 GW on Monday at 8 a.m.
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- Wind was the first source of electricity during 77% of the week, followed by solar PV (9%) and hydro (9%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 35% and 76% of total generation, similar to the values observed in the previous week (34% and 73%). Wind's maximum share reached 59% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 43%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 2.7 TWh, 111.7% higher than the previous week
- Solar PV generation was 0.7 TWh, 1% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 58.8/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 61.8/MWh
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Spain
EUR 55.5/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 54.2/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices were volatile throughout the week. Early in the week, they fell slightly as tensions with Iran eased and traders focused on concerns about too much supply in the market, as well as renewed trade tensions after President Trump threatened tariffs on several European countries over Greenland. On Thursday, prices steadied after Trump reversed his tariff threats. Prices rebounded sharply on Friday on renewed geopolitical risk as the US signaled naval movements toward Iran, raising fears of potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite mid week weakness, crude ended the week up 0.9%, with settlements rising from USD 63.94/bbl on Monday to USD 65.88/bbl on Friday.
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European gas prices dropped more than 8% on Monday as forecasts turned milder, but they later rebounded when colder weather outlooks and storage levels below 50% raised supply concerns. The market remained nervous, with additional support coming from lower US LNG flows, unplanned maintenance in Norway, and the risk that a US cold snap could limit LNG arrivals in Europe. Prices briefly hit a multi‑month high of EUR 41.92/MWh on Thursday before easing again. By Friday, prices stayed relatively high because storage was still low at 47.6% and temperatures were expected to remain below normal. Overall, settlements increased from EUR 35.40 on Monday to EUR 40.04 on Friday.
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European carbon prices ended around 3% lower compared to previous Friday. Speculative investors increased their record‑high net long position to 126m tons. The Dec‑26 EUA contract dropped to a five‑week low of EUR 83.52/t on Tuesday, more than EUR 10 below last Friday’s settlement. Prices later recovered some ground, supported by a generally bullish longer‑term outlook, and were last seen at EUR 88.40/t on Friday, still below the previous week’s EUR 92.04/t close. While geopolitical risks played a role, the potential economic impact of new US tariffs on European exports also weighed heavily on sentiment.
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Finally, power futures remained relatively stable except for Q2 26. Q2 26 closed decreasing 6.7% at EUR 37.6/MWh, while Q3 26 rose by 0.5% to EUR 65.6/MWh. Q4 26 rose by 0.7% to EUR 71.3/MWh. For annual contracts, Cal 27 rose by 1.1% to EUR 56/MWh, and Cal 28 decreased by 1.2% to EUR 55.6/MWh.
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