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VOL 8 | NUM 20 | 20 January 2026
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IBERIA | 12 - 18 January 2026
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
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Day‑Ahead prices jumped above EUR 100/MWh, driven by rising commodities and weaker wind output
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 110.1/MWh last week, registering a rise of 40.3% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 78.5/MWh). This weekly price was 17% lower than 2024 (EUR 133.3/MWh) and 65% higher than in 2023 (EUR 66.8/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 92.2/MWh, -17% lower than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 110.8/MWh) and 31% higher than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 70.3/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by -2.9%, reaching 6.7 TWh, compared to the 6.9 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Drop of wind generation by 16.7 pp, as well as solar PV (-1.5 pp)
- Which was compensated by the following technologies: gas (6.7 pp), hydro (6.1 pp) and imports (4.7 pp)
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Global renewable energy share decreased from 64.2% to 52.2% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Hourly prices stayed consistently elevated, with a large share of hours clearing above EUR 100/MWh and peaks well into triple digits throughout the week. Wednesday stood out with the baseload its highest in almost seven months. On Friday, the first intraday market (IDA1) was cancelled in Spain after OMIE decoupled from the rest of Europe due to a scheduling delay from Red Eléctrica.
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The weekly maximum was EUR 184.6/MWh, reached on Wednesday at 6:45 p.m. Minimum price, EUR 60/MWh was reached on Monday between 4:00 p.m. and 4:30 a.m. Both maximum and minimum prices were coupled with Portugal and France.
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The SWE grid coupling was 61%, higher than recorded the previous week, 39%.
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- Spain-Portugal: 98%
- Spain-France: 63%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 61%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 110.1/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 109.2/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 110.4/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 103.2/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 6.9 GW. Almaraz 2 reported some failures since Friday, when it lowered its operation
- Hydraulic generation provided night-time peak generation, with some baseload generation. The hourly average production was 8.1 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 7.9 GW, with weekly maximum values of 16.1 GW on Friday at 8 p.m.
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- Wind was the first source of electricity during 32% of the week, followed by hydro (28%) and solar PV (18%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 34% and 73% of total generation, lower values than the ones observed in the previous week (51% and 74%). Wind's and solar PV's maximum share reached 52% of hourly generation.
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 1.3 TWh, 48.5% lower than the previous week
- Solar PV generation was 0.7 TWh, 14.7% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 101/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 104.5/MWh
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Spain
EUR 102.3/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 100.8/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices saw sharp swings during the week. Prices initially surged on escalating unrest in Iran, with both benchmarks gaining over 10% across five sessions and reaching their highest levels since late September/early October mid‑week. The rally reflected heightened supply risk from Iran, which produces around 3 m bbl/day (3 – 4% of global supply) and controls the Strait of Hormuz, the transit route for roughly 20% of global seaborne oil. As fears of U.S. intervention faded and Venezuela resumed exports, Brent retraced gains toward USD 64/bbl.
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European gas prices surged over the week as cold weather, stronger demand and rapidly declining storage levels tightened fundamentals, with prices rising from EUR 28.81/MWh on Monday and extending five consecutive sessions of gains. EU storage fell to 51.9%, down 5.2 pp on the week and far below last year’s 72.9%, while demand exceeded 2,000 mcm/day amid freezing temperatures. The rally accelerated on Friday, when Europe’s benchmark gas price jumped 15% to a near seven‑month high, last seen at EUR 36.77/MWh after briefly touching EUR 38.08/MWh, driven by the cold spell, tightening stocks and strong speculative buying.
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European carbon prices climbed to their strongest levels in more than two years, with the Dec‑26 contract breaking EUR 90/t on Monday and reaching a 30‑month high of EUR 93.80/t mid‑week amid expectations of tighter supply and a colder weather outlook. Prices held firm through Friday, last seen at EUR 91.92/t, keeping weekly gains near 4%. A three‑week pause in auction supply, increased fossil‑fuel generation during the cold spell, and robust speculative participation, with investment funds lifting their net long to 125.6 m tons, all reinforced upward pressure, helping EUAs remain well anchored above the EUR 90/t mark.
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Finally, power futures strongly increased. Q2 26 closed rising 9.5% at EUR 40.3/MWh, while Q3 26 rose by 8.7% to EUR 65.3/MWh. Q4 26 rose by 8.9% to EUR 70.8/MWh. For annual contracts, Cal 27 rose by 6.3% to EUR 55.4/MWh, and Cal 28 rose by 7% to EUR 56.3/MWh.
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