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VOL 8 | NUM 18 | 8 January 2025
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Power Markets Weekly 
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IBERIA | 29 December - 4 January 2025
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Dear weekly subscribers, holidays are over and normal operations resume. Apologies for the delay this week, we were briefly unwrapping gifts instead of tracking prices. Here is your weekly.
Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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A cold start to the year supported Day-Ahead Market prices
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 88/MWh last week, registering a rise of 26.8% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 69.4/MWh). This weekly price was 23% lower than 2024 (EUR 113.9/MWh) and 49% higher than in 2023 (EUR 58.9/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 88/MWh, -23% lower than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 113.9/MWh) and 49% higher than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 58.9/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by -2.7%, reaching 5.87 TWh, compared to the 6.03 TWh recorded the previous week. This was due to the New Year holidays.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Gas and imports increased their share by 2.9 and 1.3 pp, respectively
- Resulting in share decrease of wind (-3.1 pp) and hydro (-1.5 pp)
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Global renewable energy share decreased from 58.5% to 53.3% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Hourly prices followed a classic pattern, with lower values during solar hours and higher prices concentrated in the evening. The sharpest mid‑day declines were recorded on Thursday and Friday, specially in France, followed by a rebound in evening hours. Over the weekend, prices were more stable, particularly on Sunday, amid lower demand.
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The weekly maximum was EUR 165.5/MWh, reached on Monday at 9:00 p.m., coupled with Portugal. Minimum price, EUR 50/MWh was reached on Sunday between 5:30 a.m. and 5:45 a.m., coupled with Portugal too.
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The SWE grid coupling was 35%, lower than recorded the previous week, 77%.
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- Spain-Portugal: 100%
- Spain-France: 35%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 35%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 88/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 89.5/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 88/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 81.1/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 7.1 GW, with all the nuclear fleet operating
- Hydraulic generation provided night-time peak generation, with relevant baseload generation and some pumping on Thursday, Friday and Sunday. The hourly average production was 6.8 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 6.1 GW, with weekly maximum values of 13.9 GW on Monday at 6 p.m.
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- Wind was the first source of electricity during 35% of the week, followed by hydro (30%) and solar PV (18%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 30% and 72% of total generation, a wider variation than observed in the previous week (41% and 73%). Wind's maximum share reached 50% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 51%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 1.2 TWh, 15% lower than the previous week
- Solar PV generation was 0.6 TWh, 8.4% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 82.8/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 81.7/MWh
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Spain
EUR 80.6/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 82.5/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices moved narrowly over the holiday week, ending at USD 60.75/bbl, slightly below Monday’s USD 61.49/bbl. Geopolitical tensions offered brief support, but prices stayed capped by persistent oversupply concerns after Brent posted a 20% annual drop in 2025. With markets awaiting the next Opec+ meeting, trading remained muted and range‑bound.
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European gas prices edged higher over the week, supported by colder weather forecasts and an unplanned Norwegian outage cutting flows by around 7 mcm/day until 1 January. After hitting a weekly low of EUR 27.27/MWh on Tuesday, prices rebounded toward the end of the week, closing at EUR 29.00/MWh on Friday. EU storage levels continued to decline to 62.2%, around 10 percentage points below last year.
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European carbon prices stayed supported throughout the week, driven by the ongoing auction pause and a continued build‑up in speculative length, with investment funds extending their record‑high net long position to 117.6m allowances. The benchmark briefly hit EUR 88.88/t on Friday, the strongest level since August 2023, before settling at EUR 88.31/t.
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Finally, power futures overall increased. Q2 26 closed rising 6.5% at EUR 41/MWh, while Q3 26 rose by 1.7% to EUR 67.6/MWh. Q4 26 rose by 1% to EUR 73/MWh. For annual contracts, Cal 27 rose by 1.2% to EUR 60.5/MWh, and Cal 28 decreased by 3.8% to EUR 52.6/MWh.
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