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VOL 8 | NUM 16 | 23 December 2025
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Power Markets Weekly 
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IBERIA | 15 - 21 December 2025
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Wishing all our weekly subscribers a Merry Christmas! May your holidays bring more joy than volatility in the Day-Ahead Market
Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market prices driven by rising seasonal demand
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 86.9/MWh last week, registering a rise of 6.2% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 81.8/MWh). This weekly price was 12% lower than 2024 (EUR 99.3/MWh) and 31% higher than in 2023 (EUR 66.5/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 65.1/MWh, 6% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 61.5/MWh) and -26% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 87.7/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 2.9%, reaching 6.29 TWh, compared to the 6.11 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Hydro generation increased by 1.3 pp
- Solar PV decreased by -1.7 pp
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Global renewable energy share increased from 51.7% to 51.9% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish hourly prices remained consistently above France through the week, with sharp mid‑week peaks above EUR 120/MWh driven by low wind and solar output. France showed deeper overnight lows, at times near EUR 0/MWh, supported by stronger renewables and stable nuclear generation. Toward the weekend, profiles became smoother in both markets.
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The weekly maximum was EUR 152.6/MWh, reached on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., coupled with Portugal. Minimum price, EUR 26/MWh was reached on Thursday at 1:45 p.m., coupled with Portugal too.
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The SWE grid coupling was 42%, higher than recorded the previous week, 31%.
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- Spain-Portugal: 100%
- Spain-France: 42%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 42%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 86.9/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 84.3/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 86.9/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 69.1/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 6.4 GW, with Vandellos returning to operation by the end of the week
- Hydraulic generation provided night-time peak generation, with relevant baseload generation. The hourly average production was 7.8 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 7.2 GW, with weekly maximum values of 15.6 GW on Wednesday at 9 p.m.
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- Wind was the first source of electricity during 38% of the week, followed by hydro (31%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 33% and 71% of total generation, a higher variation than observed in the previous week (38% and 69%). Wind's maximum share reached 45% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 41%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 1.3 TWh, 6.8% higher than the previous week
- Solar PV generation was 0.5 TWh, 14.1% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 75.5/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 76.8/MWh
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Spain
EUR 81.9/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 85.7/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices posted a second consecutive weekly decline, settling at USD 60.47/bbl on Friday after briefly touching a low of USD 58.72/bbl on Tuesday. Prices were pulled between geopolitical tensions— including rising US–Venezuela strains and Iran’s tanker seizure— and growing optimism over a potential Russia–Ukraine peace deal, which pressured benchmarks to multi‑month lows as investors anticipated a possible easing of sanctions on Russian oil. Despite mid‑week rebounds, sentiment remained dominated by weak demand and ample supply, with the IEA reporting sizeable inventory builds and Opec+ output rising. Overall, Brent ended the week around 2.5% lower, extending its year‑to‑date decline to nearly 20%.
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European gas prices ended the week higher, settling at EUR 28.16/MWh on Friday, up from EUR 27.43/MWh on Monday, as forecasts for colder weather outweighed otherwise comfortable supply conditions. Early in the week, prices eased amid slow seasonal demand, EU storage dipping just below 70%, and continued strong LNG availability. The market touched a low of EUR 26.62/MWh on Tuesday before rebounding midweek on colder temperature forecasts and spillover support from rising Brent. By Friday, the contract reached a two‑week high of EUR 28.50/MWh, with traders warning that while supply remains ample, winter cold snaps could shift reliance back toward storage.
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European carbon prices strengthened further last week, supported by the expiry of the Dec‑25 contract and the start of a three‑week auction pause. The Dec‑25 benchmark settled at EUR 87.28/t on Monday, its highest level in over two years before rolling off, while the new front‑month Dec‑26 contract climbed to a weekly high of EUR 88.49/t on Wednesday. Prices were buoyed by record‑high speculative net long positions, colder weather forecasts increasing expected thermal generation, and reduced primary supply, with the last auction of the year clearing on Monday at EUR 84.60/t. By Friday, EUA prices remained elevated at EUR 87.05/t, with traders expecting the auction break and winter demand outlook to keep the market supported near recent highs.
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Finally, power futures increased. Q1 26 closed rising 1.2% at EUR 58.8/MWh, while Q2 26 rose by 3.8% to EUR 38.3/MWh. Q3 26 rose by 2.1% to EUR 62.4/MWh. For annual contracts, Cal 26 rose by 1.2% to EUR 56.8/MWh, and Cal 27 rose by 0.6% to EUR 54.8/MWh.
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