|
|
VOL 8 | NUM 14 | 9 December 2025
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IBERIA | 1 - 7 December 2025
|
|
|
|
Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wind production surge led to a 10% average price decline, and no zero or negative prices occurred during the week
|
|
|
|
The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 64.5/MWh last week, registering a decrease of -9.9% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 71.6/MWh). This weekly price was 38% lower than 2024 (EUR 104.1/MWh) and 5% lower than in 2023 (EUR 68.2/MWh).
|
|
YTD average is EUR 64.3/MWh, 8% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 59.5/MWh) and -27% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 88.5/MWh).
|
|
Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by -0.2%, reaching 6.39 TWh, compared to the 6.4 TWh recorded the previous week.
|
|
The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
|
- Wind generation share rose by 7 pp
- Solar declined by 4 pp, followed by hydro 2 pp and gas 1 pp
|
|
Global renewable energy share increased from 58.6% to 59.7% since the previous week.
|
|
Generation Mix Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
Variation Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nuclear
|
|
Cogeneration
|
|
Renewable thermal
|
|
Coal
|
|
Combined cycle
|
|
|
Hydraulic
|
|
Wind
|
|
Solar PV
|
|
Solar thermal
|
|
Imports
|
|
|
|
Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices fluctuated around EUR 80/MWh during weekdays, and dropped during weekend as demand was lower and wind remained at high level.
|
|
The weekly maximum was EUR 159.7/MWh, reached on Monday at 9:00 p.m., coupled with Portugal. Minimum price, EUR 0.5/MWh was reached on Sunday between at 1:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m., also coupled with Portugal.
|
|
The SWE grid coupling was 51%, higher than recorded the previous week, 44%.
|
- Spain-Portugal: 100%
- Spain-France: 52%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 51%
|
|
Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spanish DAM
EUR 64.5/MWh
|
|
Spanish IM
EUR 64.5/MWh
|
|
Portugal DAM
EUR 64.5/MWh
|
|
France DAM
EUR 64.7/MWh
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
|
|
The highlights from last week
|
- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 6 GW. Vandellos continued its planned maintenance until December 9. On Wednesday between 12:00 and 14:00 nuclear production was reduced likely due to large wind and solar production.
- Hydraulic generation provided night-time peak generation plus day-time generation the days of low solar output. Large pumping during day-time was present on Wednesday and during weekend, and also during weekend windy nights.
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 6.2 GW mostly baseload with morning and night peaks during weekdays.
|
- Wind was the first source of electricity during 74% of the week, followed by solar (13%) and hydro (10%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 36% and 70% of total generation, a similar variation than observed in the previous week (37% and 72%). Wind's maximum share reached 58% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 47%
|
|
Solar and wind generation
|
- Wind generation was 2.2 TWh, 25.1% higher than the previous week
- Solar PV generation was 0.6 TWh, 29.9% lower than the previous week
|
|
Generation by technology Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interconnections by country, from Spain
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hourly wind & solar generation
|
|
|
|
|
|
Solar PV Price
|
Wind Price
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spain
EUR 49.6/MWh
|
|
Portugal
EUR 53.7/MWh
|
|
|
|
Spain
EUR 60.9/MWh
|
|
Portugal
EUR 64/MWh
|
|
|
|
|
|
*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
|
|
|
|
|
Futures Market & Commodities
|
|
On the oil market, prices fluctuated within a narrow range but held slightly firmer throughout the week, supported by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+’s decision to pause planned production increases during Q1 2026. Brent traded mostly between USD 62–64/bbl., ending the week near USD 63.20/bbl., while WTI remained around USD 59–60/bbl. The pause in OPEC+ output hikes underscored the group’s caution amid expectations of a significant surplus early next year, with analysts warning that global balances remain heavily skewed toward oversupply despite tightening risks from ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. Peace talks between the US and Russia made limited progress, keeping sanctions in place and maintaining a geopolitical risk premium..
|
|
European gas prices extended their steep decline, hitting fresh 19–20-month lows as unseasonably mild temperatures, strong wind generation, and abundant LNG arrivals drove contracts lower throughout the week. The TTF front month fell to EUR 26.80/MWh on Friday, recovering only marginally by the close, while the UK’s NBP dropped to near 71p/th. Storage levels dipped to around 74–75% of capacity—roughly 10 percentage points below last year. Forecasts indicating temperatures 4–8°C above normal next week further depressed demand expectations.
|
|
European carbon prices traded in a tight EUR 81–83/t corridor, with the Dec 25 EUA contract oscillating around EUR 82/t as the market prepared for the 10 December option expiry. Early-week gains pushed prices briefly to EUR 83.37/t—a nine-month high—before retreating amid profit-taking and a weaker energy complex. Analysts highlighted large speculative net long positions, now near 110m tons, as both a source of support and a potential downside risk if unwound. However, strong technical support around EUR 80–81/t and the upcoming auction pause from mid-December to early January limited the likelihood of a major correction.
|
|
Finally, power futures remained relatively stable. Q1 26 closed decreasing 2% at EUR 58/MWh, while Q2 26 decreased by 7.5% to EUR 35.9/MWh. Q3 26 rose by 0.3% to EUR 61/MWh. For annual contracts, Cal 26 decreased by 1.4% to EUR 55.9/MWh, and Cal 27 decreased by 2.3% to EUR 55/MWh.
|
Why you are receiving this email
|
You are receiving this email because you are subscribed to our Power Markets Weekly report - IBERIA. If you no longer wish to receive this report, or if you would like to subscribe to other regional reports, you can manage your subscription using the button on the right.
|
|
|
|
DNV, Calle Santa Maria Magdalena 14, 28016 Madrid
|
|
|
|
|
This e-mail and any attachments thereto may contain confidential information and/or information protected by intellectual property rights for the exclusive attention of the intended addressees named above. If you have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify the sender by return e-mail and delete this message and its attachments. Unauthorized use, copying or further full or partial distribution of this e-mail or its contents is prohibited.
|
Your
data appears in a file under the responsibility of DNV Maritime and Energy, S.L.U. - NIF: 82800798 Postal address: Calle Santa Maria Magdalena, 14 - Planta 2, 28016, Madrid, E-mail: power-markets-weekly@dnv.com. On behalf of the company we treat the information you provide us with in order to send you market information, information related to our services and invitations to events. The data provided will be kept as long as you do not request the cessation of the activity. The data will not be transferred to third parties except in cases where there is a legal obligation. You have the right to obtain confirmation on whether in DNV GL Services Spain S.L. we are treating your personal data so you have the right to access your personal data, rectify inaccurate data or request its deletion when the data is no longer necessary.
|
DNV GL Services Spain S.L. publishes this weekly report using public information from OMIE, REE y MEFF. This document is for information purposes only. Its partial or total reproduction is authorized while mentioning its source as DNV. Opinions herein expressed are proprietary.
|
|
|
