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VOL 7 | NUM 25 | 18 February 2025
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IBERIA | 10 - 16 February 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average price remained high but slightly declined to EUR 117.6/MWh, driven by increased wind generation
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain slightly decreased to EUR 117.6/MWh last week, marking a 5% drop compared to the previous week's average (EUR 123.6/MWh). This weekly price was 123% higher than in 2024 (EUR 52.8/MWh) and 15% higher than in 2023 (EUR 138.1/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 105.8/MWh, 63% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 65.0/MWh) and 10% higher than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 95.8/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by 3.1% to 6.27 TWh, down from 6.46 TWh the previous week. This decline was mainly due to slightly warmer temperatures across the Iberian Peninsula, reducing heating demand.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- An rise in wind generation (+2.8 pp)
- A consequent decrease in gas generation (- 1.7 pp)
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Global renewable energy share rose slightly to 61.7%, up from 59.2% the previous week, primarily due to increased wind generation.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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The Spanish DAM remained high throughout the week, decreasing only over the weekend due to lower demand. Midday prices remained quite high on Monday and Tuesday, with a daily price spread around EUR 88/MWh. However, as solar PV generation increased, midday prices dropped more significantly in the latter half of the week, leading to notable daily spreads exceeding EUR 140/MWh on Friday and Sunday. The maximum price was EUR 201.66/MWh, reached on Friday at 7 p.m. and set by hydro pumping. The minimum was EUR 12/MWh, set on Sunday at 3 p.m. by renewables, cogeneration and waste.
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In France, DAM prices followed a similar trend, remaining high during the week and slightly decreasing over the weekend. However, unlike Spain, French prices exhibited a more stable trend due to the high share of nuclear generation, which prevented significant midday drops.
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The technologies setting the price in the Spanish DAM were:
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- Hydraulic (including pumping): 71% at EUR 120.6/MWh on average (week before: 64% at EUR 125.74/MWh)
- Renewables, cogeneration and waste: 26% at EUR 102/MWh on average (week before: 26% at EUR 107/MWh)
- Gas CC: 4% at EUR 162/MWh on average (week before: 10% at EUR 151/MWh)
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The SWE grid coupling was 35%, lower than the 40% recorded on the previous week. Additionally, there was a rise in the Spain-Portugal coupling:
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- Spain-Portugal: 99%
- Spain-France: 36%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 35%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 117.6/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 116.5/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 117.5/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 140.7/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 6.8 GW, slightly lower than the previous week due to a failure at Ascó 2 (992 MW) on Wednesday at 10 a.m.. The reactor remained offline for a few days and resumed normal operation on Friday evening
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout the week with a small component of baseload generation. The hourly average production was 10.3 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 4.6 GW, with weekly maximum values of around 8.7 GW during non-solar hours
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- Hydro was the first source of electricity during 67% of the week, followed by solar PV (29%) and wind (4%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 48% and 73% of total generation, with a lower bound slightly higher than the value recorded on the previous week (43% and 73%). Wind's maximum share reached 29% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 53%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 1.1 TWh, 15% higher than the previous week
- Solar generation was 0.85 TWh, 5.5% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 81.4/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 79.7/MWh
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Spain
EUR 121.9/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 114.4/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices fluctuated throughout the week, with Brent crude settling at USD 74.74/bbl, marking a slight gain after three weeks of declines. Early-week price increases were driven by China’s tariffs on US crude and ongoing supply concerns due to sanctions on Russia and Iran. Midweek, prices dipped amid fears that US tariff policies could hurt economic growth, but they rebounded as delays in new US tariffs provided temporary relief. Negotiations between the US and Russia over the Ukraine war also influenced market sentiment, easing supply risk concerns.
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European gas prices also fluctuated throughout the week, surging to a one-year high on Monday (settlement price at EUR 58.04/MWh), driven by low storage levels and cold weather forecasts. However, midweek profit-taking and slightly improved supply conditions triggered a downward trend. By Friday, prices settled lower at EUR 50.79/MWh as milder weather forecasts and reports of EU discussions on storage targets added bearish pressure. EU storage levels ended the week at 46.6%, significantly lower than last year’s 66.4%, raising concerns about summer injection targets.
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European carbon prices were last seen at EUR 77.89/t last Friday, down 3% on the week. The contract traded above EUR 80/t on Monday and Tuesday but fell below EUR 80/t by Thursday amid geopolitical speculation over potential US-Russia talks. Investment funds increased their net long position in EUAs for the seventh consecutive week, reaching 60.5m tons. More than 11.3m EUAs were auctioned at an average price of EUR 78.49/t, with next week’s scheduled 13.4m EUA auctions expected to add further pressure.
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To conclude, futures showed a general downwards trend. Q2 25 showed the lowest decrease, going down by 1% and reaching EUR 52/MWh. Q3 25 slid by 4.9% reaching EUR 87.3/MWh by the end of the week, while Q4 25 closed the week at EUR 89.5/MWh with a 2.7% drop. On the yearly front, cal 25 reached EUR 67.3/MWh representing a 3.9% drop and cal 26 showed the highest decrease (-5.1%) closing at EUR 57.3/MWh on Friday.
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