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VOL 7 | NUM 48 | 29 July 2025
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IBERIA | 21 - 27 July 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average fell to a 6-weeks low, thanks to a reduction in demand linked with temperature going back to normal level for the season |
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 54.7/MWh last week, registering a decrease of 30% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 77.8/MWh). Average weekly prices close to EUR 50/MWh had not been recorded since early June. This weekly price was 35% lower than in 2024 (EUR 84.4/MWh) and 39% lower than in 2023 (EUR 89.70/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 63.7/MWh, 49% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 42.7/MWh) and 28% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 89.0/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by 4.3%, reaching 6.03 TWh, compared to the 6.29 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- An increase in wind generation by 5.2 pp, followed by nuclear by 1.0 pp
- Imports decreased by -2.6 pp, followed by gas generation (-2.3 pp) and solar PV (-1.0 pp)
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Global renewable energy share increased from 57.3% to 61.7% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM presented two profiles during the week. From Monday to Wednesday, prices fluctuated at a higher level, reaching a maximum of EUR 169.2/MWh on Monday at 9 p.m. However, the other half of the week saw several prices close to the minimum prices during daylight hours, reaching a minimum of EUR -0.6/MWh on Sunday at 4 p.m.
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Negative prices on the Spanish DAM were only reached on Sunday, while on the other days the minimum did not fall below EUR 0/MWh. Furthermore, although prices fell during daylight hours, the intraday range on Sunday was EUR 89.24/MWh, for example.
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The SWE grid coupling was 30%, very close to the value recorded the previous week, 29%:
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- Spain-Portugal: 99%
- Spain-France: 30%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 30%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 54.7/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 66.1/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 54.7/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 56.5/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 7.0 GW, reaching a similar value than the previous week (6.9 GW)
- Hydraulic generation provided night-time peak generation. The hourly average production was 3.6 GW. Pumping during day-time was present alongside the week, with the exception of Wednesday, when renewable output was lower
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 4.5 GW and relevant baseload, with weekly maximum values of 10.0 GW on Monday at 9 p.m.
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- Solar PV was the first source of electricity during 46% of the week, followed by wind (39%) and hydro (11%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 45% and 71% of total generation, with higher lower bound compared to the values observed in the previous week (34% and 70%). Wind's maximum share reached 47% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 58%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 1.33 TWh, 21% higher than the previous week
- Solar generation was 1.52 TWh, 5% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 24.3/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 21.6/MWh
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Spain
EUR 58.2/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 64.2/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices remained firm as the market adjusted expectations about supply surpluses, ending the week at USD 68.44/bbl. The Brent crude benchmark continued to trade within a relatively narrow range of USD 66-72/bbl, consistent with trends observed since early July. Market participants responded to concerns over potential US tariffs and sanctions on Russian energy, which could further disrupt global supply flows. Early Thursday saw a modest increase in oil prices, supported by indications of strong demand for crude oil in the United States and renewed optimism regarding US-led trade negotiations ahead of the 1st August deadline for additional tariff implementations.
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European gas prices fell to an 11-week low of EUR 31.905/MWh on Friday before closing at EUR 32.499/MWh, remaining mainly between EUR 32-33/MWh throughout the week. Prices peaked at EUR 34/MWh on Monday amid US tariff concerns, but strong renewables output and cooler weather drove prices lower. European storage reached 66%, up 2.1% from last week but still 17.3% below last year, while Germany’s biggest storage site, Rehden, was only 7.4% full.
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European carbon prices traded and settled below EUR 70/t for much of the week, before reaching a weekly high of EUR 71.18/t on Thursday and subsequently surpassing it with EUR 71.5/t on Friday. Notably, Tuesday saw the contract settle at a three-week low of EUR 68.86/t, reflecting subdued activity during the holiday season and a lack of supportive elements such as weather-driven demand for cooling. The European Central Bank’s decision to maintain interest rates at 2%, combined with the EU’s announcement regarding the US tariff agreement, contributed to increased price support by week’s end. Additionally, over 13.4 million EUAs were auctioned successfully this week, achieving an average price of EUR 69.29/t and an average cover ratio of 1.68.
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Finally, futures presented an overall downward trend. Q4 25 took the largest drop, decreasing by -4.7% to reach EUR 75.25/MWh. Q1 26 also slipped, by -3.3% to close at EUR 69.70/MWh. Q2 26 remained the most stable one, slightly declining by -0.7% to end the week at EUR 42.40/MWh. On the yearly front, cal 26 dropped by -1.7%, while cal 27 followed a similar trend with a drop of -1.1%, closing at EUR 62.41/MWh and EUR 60.47/MWh respectively.
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