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VOL 7 | NUM 46 | 15 July 2025
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IBERIA | 7 - 13 July 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average price declined in a week with lower demand and full nuclear fleet
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 77.3/MWh last week, registering a drop of 16% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 91.7/MWh). This weekly price was 14% higher than in 2024 (EUR 67.7/MWh) and 14% lower than in 2023 (EUR 89.9/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 63.5/MWh, 58% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 40.1/MWh) and 29% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 89.0/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by 6.7%, reaching 6.15 TWh, compared to the 6.57 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Increase of nuclear generation by 2.8 pp, solar PV (+1.6 pp) and imports (+1.6 pp)
- Decrease of gas generation by -3.4 pp, followed by wind (-1.7 pp) and hydro (-1.4 pp)
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Global renewable energy share decreased from 56.5% to 55.5% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM remained over the barrier of EUR 100/MWh 29% of the time, with a weekly hourly maximum of EUR 170/MWh set on Thursday at 10 p.m. Meanwhile, DAM did not drop below EUR 0/MWh last week, reaching zero on Sunday between non and 3 p.m., the lowest level of the week.
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However, Spanish IM prices showed more volatility across the week, ranging from EUR 215/MWh on Thursday at 10 p.m., to negative prices reached on solar hours, with a minimum of EUR -10/MWh on Tuesday at 11 a.m.
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The SWE grid coupling was 17%, exactly the same value recorded the previous week:
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- Spain-Portugal: 96%
- Spain-France: 18%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 17%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 77.3/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 86.9/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 77.6/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 50/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 7 GW, reaching a higher value than the previous week (6.4 GW)
- Hydraulic generation provided baseload generation except during solar hours. The hourly average production was 3.9 GW. Pumping occurred on Monday, Tuesday and on the weekend
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 6.2 GW and relevant baseload, with weekly maximum values of 11.8 GW on Thursday at 7 a.m.
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- Solar PV was the first source of electricity during 48% of the week, followed by wind (18%) and gas (18%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 28% and 73% of total generation, similar with the values observed in the previous week (33% and 69%, respectively). Wind's maximum share reached 46% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 54%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 0.91 TWh, 16% lower than the previous week
- Solar generation was 1.57 TWh, equal than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 44.9/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 40.6/MWh
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Spain
EUR 77.4/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 74.3/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices reached USD 70.71/bbl, the highest since June 23, after reports of renewed shipping disruptions in the Red Sea. Additional factors affecting prices included concerns about US tariffs and potential sanctions on Russia. Opec+ decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding the initially expected increase of 411,000 barrels per day. This adjustment represents a change from the previously announced monthly increases of 411,000 barrels per day for May, June, and July, and 138,000 barrels per day in April; these cuts had originally been implemented to support oil prices. The week ended with oil priced at USD 70.36/bbl
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European gas prices advanced to their highest level in nearly two weeks, driven by anticipated increases in demand associated with rising temperatures, while overall supply remained relatively stable. On Friday, the price peaked at EUR 35.7/MWh, marking the highest point since 26 June. From a geopolitical perspective, markets awaited a significant announcement from US President Donald Trump regarding Russia. Additionally, there were signs that rising temperatures in Asia could boost LNG demand in the region, potentially tightening the global market for spot cargoes. As of the latest data, European gas storage facilities stood at 62% capacity, compared to 79.9% at the same time last year.
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European carbon prices declined by 2% over the week as of Friday, amid unclear developments regarding trade with the US and reduced activity due to the holiday season. The December 2025 EUA contract was most recently trading at EUR 70.55/t, having earlier reached a low of EUR 69.64/t, its lowest intraday value in ten days. The US president extended a deadline from last week to 1 August for reaching a trade agreement with the EU that would prevent punitive tariffs. Total long positions increased by 2.1 million EUAs during the week to 52.8 million EUAs, marking the first rise in three weeks. Short positions fell by 1.3 million EUAs to 33.8 million EUAs, the lowest level since the week ending 25 August 2023.
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Finally, futures presented an upward movement in the quarters and stayed stable for the yearly forecast. Q4 25, Q1 26 and Q2 26 rose by 2.5%, 2.6% and 2.8% respectively. They closed the week at EUR 80.96/MWh (Q4 25), EUR 73.75/MWh (Q1 26) and EUR 41.00/MWh (Q2 26). Cal 26 slightly jumped by 0.7%, ending at EUR 63.71/MWh, while cal 27 remained almost equal, dropping by 0.2%, closing at EUR 61.85/MWh.
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