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VOL 7 | NUM 44 | 1 July 2025
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IBERIA | 23 - 29 June 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average price remained stable, following summer trends
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 87.8/MWh last week, registering a slight drop of 2% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 89.5/MWh). This weekly price was 26% higher than in 2024 (EUR 69.7/MWh) and 1% higher than in 2023 (EUR 86.7/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 61.9/MWh, 60% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 38.7/MWh) and 30% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 88.4/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 1.2%, reaching 6.29 TWh, compared to the 6.21 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- An increase in nuclear (+ 2.8 pp) and wind generation (+ 1.0 pp)
- A decrease in gas (- 2.3 pp) and hydraulic generation (- 1.3 pp)
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Global renewable energy share slightly increased from 55.8% to 55.9% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM followed a similar trend as last week, with higher hourly prices than usual. The EUR 100/MWh level was surpassed 57% of the time, same as last week. The maximum price was EUR 195.8/MWh, reached on Monday at 9 p.m. No negative values were reached this week, while the minimum price was set on Saturday at 12 p.m and 1 p.m., at EUR 0.6/MWh.
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Portuguese DAM followed the Spanish prices during the entire week, as interconnection flows have gone back to normal levels. French DAM prices remained below Spanish ones, reaching a minimum value of EUR -17.3/MWh on Monday at 2p.m.
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The SWE grid coupling was 20%, higher than the value recorded the previous week, 13%:
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- Spain-Portugal: 97%
- Spain-France: 20%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 20%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 87.8/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 95.9/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 87.8/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 61.3/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 6.9 GW, reaching a higher value than the previous week (5.9 GW). The entire nuclear fleet was available during most of the week, except for Cofrentes which was partially unavailable during Sunday
- Hydraulic generation provided baseload generation except during solar hours. The hourly average production was 4.6 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 6.4 GW and relevant baseload, with weekly maximum values of 11.2 GW on Friday at 9 p.m
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- Solar PV was the first source of electricity during 49% of the week, followed by gas (19%) and hydro (17%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 32% and 71% of total generation, higher in the upper bound when compared to the previous week (35% and 69%). Wind's maximum share reached 27% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 59%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 0.84 TWh, 10% higher than the previous week
- Solar generation was 1.66 TWh, 4% higher than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 48.7/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 45.1/MWh
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Spain
EUR 96.4/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 96.4/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices were volatile amid shifting Middle East tensions. On Monday, Brent crude benchmark spiked over 10%, reaching USD 81.4/bbl, the highest level since January, after US and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear sites raised fears of supply disruptions. However, prices retreated after President Trump announced a ceasefire, with Brent falling to USD 68.39/bbl by Tuesday. By midweek, oil prices regained some ground after Trump announced that China could continue to purchase Iranian oil. Brent crude ended the week at USD 68.15/bbl, down 11% from last Friday, breaking a three-week streak of gains.
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European gas prices retreated from 11-week highs as geopolitical tensions eased, ending the week at EUR 33.7/MWh. Prices had surged earlier in the week amid fears of supply disruptions following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, but a ceasefire reduced concerns over a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global LNG passes. Despite the recent calm, the market remains sensitive to developments in the region. Norwegian gas flows have increased, providing additional supply, while European storage levels reached 57.1% of capacity, compared to 76.5% one year ago.
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European carbon prices fell by 3% over the past week. After hitting a three-week low on Friday morning, prices concluded the week at EUR 70.96/t. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran, combined with weak demand, weighed on the market. As of last Friday, investment funds' net long position declined by 5.1 million EUAs to 23 million EUAs, marking the largest weekly reduction in 10 weeks. A total of 13.4 million EUAs were auctioned at an average price of EUR 71.10/t.
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Finally, futures showed a downwards trend overall. Q3 25 went down by 8.7% reaching EUR 76/MWh. Q4 25 slid by 7.9% reaching EUR 81.6/MWh by the end of the week. Q1 26 closed the week at EUR 66.9/MWh, which represented a drop of 8.2%. Finally, on the yearly front, cal 26 reached EUR 61.9/MWh by the end of the week (-6.0%) and cal 27 closed at EUR 58.9/MWh, a loss of 0.5% compared to the week before.
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