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VOL 7 | NUM 43 | 24 June 2025
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IBERIA | 16 - 22 June 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average price continued its astronomical rise, leaving behind the spring trends
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 89.5/MWh last week, registering a rise of 40% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 63.8/MWh). Prices have not been this high since the beginning of March. This weekly price was 53% higher than in 2024 (EUR 58.4/MWh) and 13% lower than in 2023 (EUR 103.3/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 60.8/MWh, 63% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 37.4/MWh) and 31% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 88.4/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 5.5%, reaching 6.21 TWh, compared to the 5.87 TWh recorded the previous week. Demand specially rose due to a higher AC needs given the higher temperatures registered in the Peninsula.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- A drop of wind generation by 3.7 pp
- Consequently, an increase in gas generation (+ 1.2 pp) and solar PV (+ 1.2 pp)
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Global renewable energy share decreased from 57.7% to 55.8% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM presented hourly prices higher than usual: they surpassed EUR 100/MWh 57% of the time. It even went over EUR 200/MWh, setting the maximum price for the week at EUR 210/MWh, reached on Monday at 9 p.m. On Wednesday at 9.m., Spanish IM also jumped over EUR 200/MWh. However, prices also dropped to floor levels, reaching a minimum of EUR -1.5/MWh on Sunday at noon. Prices were close or below EUR 0/MWh 10% of the time.
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French DAM prices decoupled from Spain, reaching a lower average for the week. However, on Sunday at 1 p.m., price slipped to EUR -78/MWh. With the exception of Monday and Tuesday during solar hours, Portuguese DAM followed the Spanish prices.
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The SWE grid coupling was 13%, slightly higher compared to the value recorded the previous week, 7%. Additionally, there was a rise in the Spain-Portugal coupling:
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- Spain-Portugal: 91%
- Spain-France: 14%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 13%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 89.5/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 98/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 90.2/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 51.6/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 5.9 GW, reaching a higher value than the previous week (5.4 GW). Asco 2 ended its maintenance, while Almaraz was not generating from Tuesday to Friday. Nevertheless, the week ended with all the nuclear fleet available.
- Hydraulic generation provided baseload generation except during solar hours and on Monday. The hourly average production was 5.1 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 7.2 GW and relevant baseload, with weekly maximum values of 13.8 GW on Wednesday at 9 p.m
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- Solar PV was the first source of electricity during 48% of the week, followed by gas (29%) and hydro (14%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 35% and 69% of total generation, consistent with values observed in the previous week (36% and 70%). Wind's maximum share reached 46% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 59%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 0.8 TWh, 17% higher than the previous week
- Solar generation was 1.6 TWh, 13% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 52.5/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 51.8/MWh
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Spain
EUR 91.9/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 96.1/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market,
prices have risen as the Israel-Iran conflict continues. On Thursday, the Brent crude benchmark reached USD 79.04/bbl and ended the week at USD 77.01/bbl. On Monday, prices increased by more than 10% during the session, reaching their highest levels since January after Israel launched attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities and targeted key military leadership. Potential involvement of the US could escalate the situation, increasing the risk of attacks on energy infrastructure in the region, which supplies nearly one-third of the world’s oil. Additionally, the conflict has caused delays in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil tankers leaving the Persian Gulf, with some shipowners avoiding the area. Approximately 20% of the world's oil and fuel pass through this strait.
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European gas prices
remained near 11-week highs due to geopolitical concerns, reaching a weekly peak of EUR 41.9/MWh. Prices increased due to fears that an escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict could disrupt global supply chains, with particular concern over a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route, and possible damage to gas facilities in the region. The LNG market continues to be highly sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Gulf. If the United States were to join Israel in attacking Iran's underground nuclear sites, the conflict could escalate further. Additionally, a reduction in Israeli gas flows to Egypt following the suspension of operations at two gas fields has raised concerns that Egypt may increase its LNG imports from an already constrained market. The effect of planned Norwegian outages on European gas flows has diminished week on week. European storage
sites were recently reported to be at 54.7% capacity, compared to 74.2% capacity one year ago.
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European carbon prices decreased by 4% over the past week. Although trading reached a peak of EUR 76.47/t on Monday, the contract subsequently diverged from the broader energy market, experiencing consecutive declines during the week. It concluded at a two-week low of EUR 71.73/t on Thursday, driven by concerns over supply amid the Israel-Iran conflict and heightened cooling demand due to the heatwave across Europe. As of last Friday, investment funds' net long position rose to nearly 28.1 million EUAs, an increase of 5.4 million EUAs or 24% from the prior week. A total of 11.3 million EUAs were auctioned at an average price of EUR 73.50/t with an average cover ratio of 1.68.
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Finally, futures did not yet react to the geopolitical turmoil compared to the other commodities described. The biggest jump came from Q3 25, that recorded a 6.8% increase to close at EUR 83/MWh. Q4 25 also jumped from previous week’s value by 3%, ending at EUR 88.60/MWh. Q1 26 remained almost equal, varying by 0.6% to close at EUR 72.91/MWh. On the yearly front, cal 26 and cal 27 only increased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, ending with values on Friday at EUR 64.88/MWh and EUR 59.23/MWh.
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