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VOL 7 | NUM 42 | 17 June 2025
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IBERIA | 9 - 15 June 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market average price increased for the third consecutive week, alongside higher demand and less renewable generation
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 63.8/MWh last week, registering a rise of 24% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 44.3/MWh). This weekly price was 44% higher than in 2024 (EUR 71.3/MWh) and 34% higher than in 2022 (EUR 97.0/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 60/MWh, 63% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 36.6/MWh) and 32% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 87.8/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 4.6%, reaching 5.87 TWh, compared to the 5.60 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- A decrease of solar generation by 1.5 pp, and hydraulic by 0.9 pp
- Consequently, an increase in gas (+ 1.5 pp) and nuclear generation (+ 1.5 pp)
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Global renewable energy share decreased from 61.0% to 57.7% since the previous week. This decrease was primarily fueled by the drop in wind and hydro generation.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM showed a decreasing trend along the week. Zero or negative price prices were registered from Thursday onwards during daylight hours, 15% of the week (15 hours). The minimum price was EUR -3/MWh, set on Sunday at 1 p.m., and the maximum was EUR 140.6/MWh, set on Thursday at 10 p.m.
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Portugal - Spain coupling in prices continued to increase, though some decoupling is still observed almost every day during solar hours. In France, price dropped below EUR -20/MWh on Friday and Sunday, at 1 p.m. and 2 p.m., respectively.
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The SWE grid coupling was 7% lower compared to the value recorded the previous week, 8%:
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- Spain-Portugal: 75%
- Spain-France: 11%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 7%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 63.8/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 70/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 65.3/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 28.1/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 5.4 GW, higher than the previous week, at 4.6 GW. Ascó 2 remains under maintenance until June 20, while Ascó 1 was unavailable until June 13.
- Hydraulic generation provided baseload generation except during solar hours. The hourly average production was 4.5 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 6.3 GW and relevant baseload, with weekly maximum values of 11.5 GW on Thursday at 9 p.m
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- Solar PV was the first source of electricity during 47% of the week, followed by wind (21%), hydro (16%) and gas (16%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 36% and 70% of total generation, lower than values observed in the previous week (44% and 74%). Wind's maximum share reached 40% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 55%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 0.9 TWh, 3.7% higher than the previous week
- Solar generation was 1.4 TWh, 1% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 23.7/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 25.2/MWh
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Spain
EUR 68.4/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 63.9/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices ended the week up over 7%, with Brent settling at USD 74.25/bbl after hitting a 4.5-month intraday high of UD 78.50/bbl on Friday, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions. The sharp rise followed Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites. Earlier in the week, prices were buoyed by US-China trade negotiations and optimism over demand during the summer driving season. However, oversupply concerns persisted, as Opec+ continued to unwind last year’s voluntary cuts with a planned 411,000 bbl/day increase in July. Chinese crude imports and refinery runs declined in May, adding to demand-side uncertainty. Meanwhile, EIA data showed a larger-than-expected US crude inventory draw, supporting sentiment ahead of peak demand season.
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European gas prices
closed at EUR 38.58/MWh (TTF), a nine-week high, driven by escalating Middle East tensions and reduced Norwegian flows, ending the week 6% higher than the previous Friday. Prices fell early in the week as revised Norwegian maintenance schedules and stronger storage injections provided relief. However, a midweek rebound was triggered by concerns over French nuclear availability and geopolitical risks. On Thursday, prices gained after reports of stress corrosion at EDF’s Civaux 2 reactor and comments from former US president Trump about potential instability in the Middle East. The rally accelerated on Friday following Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and an unplanned outage at Norway’s Kollsnes gas plant. EU storage levels rose steadily to 52.1% but remained well below last year’s 72% at the same time.
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European carbon prices gained 4% this week. Prices fluctuated between EUR 73.50–75.80/t until Friday, when the Dec 25 contract surged to EUR 76.75/t – its highest since 18 February – before settling at EUR 76.37/t. Investment funds increased their net long position in EUAs by 5.7m to 22.7m EUAs, the largest weekly gain in three weeks and the highest level since late March, according to ICE exchange data. The rise in prices was supported by reduced auction volumes due to a public holiday, intensifying concerns over French nuclear availability, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
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Finally, futures showed a general upwards trend overall. Q3 25 went up by 4.7%, reaching EUR 77.7/MWh. Q4 25 rose by 5.6% reaching EUR 86.0/MWh by the end of the week. Q1 26 closed the week at EUR 72.5/MWh, which represented an increase of 3.6%. Finally, on the yearly front, cal 26 reached EUR 64.7/MWh by the end of the week (+2.4%) and cal 27 closed at EUR 59.0/MWh on Friday, with no variation over the past week.
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