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VOL 7 | NUM 41 | 10 June 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average price spiked above EUR 50/MWh for the first time since March, in a week with more gas
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 51.4/MWh last week, registering a rise of 71% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 30.1/MWh). It was the highest average price since the second week of March. This weekly price was 23% lower than in 2024 (EUR 67.1/MWh) and 37% higher than in 2023 (EUR 81.7/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 59.5/MWh, 64% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 36.2/MWh) and 32% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 87.4/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by 0.4%, reaching 5.60 TWh, compared to the 5.63 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- An increase of wind generation by 4.1 pp, followed by gas generation (2.8 pp)
- Hydraulic reduced its generation by 3.5 pp, as well as nuclear by 2.1 pp
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Global renewable energy share slightly decreased from 61.0% to 60.6% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM presented quite a volatile profile. Prices kept close to floor levels during daylight hours, but the ramp up and down periods as the solar hours ended began to push prices up. While prices were set 27% around or below EUR 0/MWh, they were also higher than EUR 100/MWh 26% of the time. The minimum price was EUR -3/MWh, set on Sunday at 3 p.m., and the maximum was EUR 142.03/MWh, set on Thursday at 10 p.m.
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By the end of the week, Portuguese prices seemed to be more coupled with Spanish ones during solar hours, even though the spread still remains. Additionally, on Sunday at 2 p.m., French price dropped to EUR -50/MWh. Nevertheless, French average price for the week, EUR 17.1/MWh, was lower compared to those of the Iberian Peninsula.
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The SWE grid coupling was 8%, lower compared to the value recorded the previous week, 38%:
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- Spain-Portugal: 62%
- Spain-France: 19%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 8%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 51.4/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 57.7/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 55.3/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 17.1/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 4.6 GW, reaching a similar value than the previous week, at 4.6 GW. Almaraz I stopped from June 1 until June 6, while Trillo had some failures during the week. Ascó 2 remains under maintenance until June 12 and Asco I stopped from June 5 to June 10
- Hydraulic generation provided baseload generation, except for solar hours when solar and wind technologies covered the market. The hourly average production was 4.6 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 5.5 GW and relevant baseload, with weekly maximum values of 9.7 GW at 7 a.m. on Friday
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- Solar PV was the first source of electricity during 47% of the week, followed by hydro (26%) and wind (18%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 44% and 74% of total generation, higher than the values observed in the previous week (39% and 72%). Wind's maximum share reached 37% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 60%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 0.9 TWh, 30% higher than the previous week
- Solar generation was 1.47 TWh, 2% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 12.2/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 16.7/MWh
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Spain
EUR 56.5/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 64.8/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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Oil prices closed the week 6% higher than the previous Friday, rising to USD 66.47/bbl. On Saturday, May 31st, OPEC+ agreed to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in July, marking the third consecutive month at this level as eight members of the alliance continue to gradually unwind a voluntary cut of 2.2 million barrels per day implemented last year. Additionally, wildfires in Alberta have disrupted more than 344,000 barrels per day of production, providing some support for crude prices. However, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated a larger-than-expected build in US gasoline and distillate inventories, exerting some bearish influence on prices midweek.
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European gas prices reached EUR 36.85/MWh, a one-week high, due to tightened supply from Norway and finished the week 6% higher than the previous Friday. Prices increased during the week due to several factors. On Monday morning, prices responded to Ukraine's drone attack on military targets in Russia. The market was also monitoring developments concerning potential EU restrictions on remaining Russian gas flows. Ongoing outages in Norway and expected below-normal solar power generation in central western Europe (CWE) also contributed to the trend. Additionally, EU storage sites were last reported at 49.9% of capacity, compared to 70.7% one year ago.
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European carbon prices gained 4% this week. Prices fluctuated between EUR 72-73.50/t until Thursday, when the Dec 25 contract briefly hit EUR 74.04/t but settled at EUR 72.74/t. Investment funds reduced their net long position in EUAs by 0.9m to 16.9m EUAs, marking the first decrease since late April, according to ICE exchange data.
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Finally, futures presented an increased lift supported by the events commented above. Q3 25 jumped by 5.8% to close the week at EUR 74.20/MWh, Q4 25 rose by 3.7% closing at EUR 81.40/MWh, and Q4 25 ended at EUR 70.00/MWh (+5.1%). On the yearly front, cal 26 increased by 3.6%, ending at EUR 63.20/MWh, while cal 27 increased by 3.1% and closed at EUR 59/MWh.
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