|
|
VOL 7 | NUM 40 | 3 June 2025
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IBERIA | 26 May - 1 June 2025
|
|
|
|
Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Day-Ahead Market weekly average price rose alongside a drop in wind generation and higher nuclear output
|
|
|
|
The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 30.1/MWh last week, registering a rise of 207% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 9.8/MWh). This weekly price was 65% lower than in 2023 (EUR 85.1/MWh) and 62% higher than in 2024 (EUR 18.6/MWh).
|
|
YTD average is EUR 63.8/MWh, 82% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 34.8/MWh) and 28% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 88.1/MWh).
|
|
Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 3.6%, reaching 5.63 TWh, compared to the 5.42 TWh recorded the previous week.
|
|
The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
|
- An important drop of wind generation (- 7.5 pp), and increase in solar PV (+ 1.9 pp)
- A decrease in hydro generation (- 1.4 pp)
- Consequently, an increase in nuclear generation (+ 2.5 pp)
|
|
Global renewable energy share decreased from 68.2% to 61.0% since the previous week. This decrease was primarily fueled by the drop in wind and hydro generation.
|
|
Generation Mix Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
Variation Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nuclear
|
|
Cogeneration
|
|
Renewable thermal
|
|
Coal
|
|
Combined cycle
|
|
|
Hydraulic
|
|
Wind
|
|
Solar PV
|
|
Solar thermal
|
|
Imports
|
|
|
|
Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spanish DAM presented prices around or below EUR 0/MWh 32% of the time, and everyday during solar hours. The minimum hourly price of the week, EUR -6.01/MWh, was reached on Sunday at 3 p.m. The maximum hourly price of the week, EUR 134.99/MWh, was reached on Thursday at 9 p.m.
|
|
French and Portuguese DAM followed a similar trend than in the last weeks. Portugal prices remain decoupled from Spain during solar hours, without recording any negative prices.
|
|
The SWE grid coupling was 38%, higher than the value recorded the previous week, 30%:
|
- Spain-Portugal: 59%
- Spain-France: 55%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 38%
|
|
Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spanish DAM
EUR 30.1/MWh
|
|
Spanish IM
EUR 39.3/MWh
|
|
Portugal DAM
EUR 34.7/MWh
|
|
France DAM
EUR 28/MWh
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
|
|
The highlights from last week
|
- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 4.6 GW, reaching a higher value than the previous week, at 4.3 GW. Ascó 2 remains under maintenance until June 12
- Hydraulic generation represented a relevant generation, except for solar hours when solar and wind technologies covered the market. The hourly average production was 5.8 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 4.6 GW and relevant baseload, with weekly maximum values of 6.4 GW at 8 p.m. on Wednesday
|
- Solar PV was the first source of electricity during 49% of the week, followed by hydro (39%) and wind (8%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 39% and 72% of total generation, lower than the values observed in the previous week (44% and 74%). Wind's maximum share reached 31% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 61%
|
|
Solar and wind generation
|
- Wind generation was 0.7 TWh, 36% lower than the previous week
- Solar generation was 1.50 TWh, 12% higher than the previous week
|
|
Generation by technology Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interconnections by country, from Spain
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hourly wind & solar generation
|
|
|
|
|
|
Solar PV Price
|
Wind Price
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spain
EUR 6.5/MWh
|
|
Portugal
EUR 14.3/MWh
|
|
|
|
Spain
EUR 36.9/MWh
|
|
Portugal
EUR 31.6/MWh
|
|
|
|
|
|
*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
|
|
|
|
|
Futures Market & Commodities
|
|
On the oil market, prices ended the week at US 62.78/bbl, posting a 2.2% decline and marking a second consecutively weekly loss as markets weighed rising Opec+ supply against tariff-related volatility. Prices firmed early in the week after President Trump delayed sweeping tariffs on EU imports, easing demand-side concerns, and climbed to a one-week high on Thursday after a US court blocked the measures. However, gains reversed after an appeals court temporarily reinstated the levies, renewing trade uncertainty. Expectations of another Opec+ output hike at this weekend’s meeting added downward pressure, though US crude inventories fell by 2.8m barrels, offering modest support amid signs of tighter near-term supply.
|
|
European gas prices declined steadily this week, with the benchmark TTF front-month contract falling from EUR 36.92/MWh on Monday to a two-week low of EUR 35.24/MWh on Friday. The price drop was primarily driven by improving Norwegian supply, as flows recovered from maintenance outages, reaching 300.4mcm/day by the end of the week. While geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over US-EU trade tariffs lent intermittent support, overall sentiment remained bearish. EU gas storage rose modestly to 47.2%, but remains significantly below last year’s levels, at 69.3%.
|
|
European carbon prices held steady this week, with the benchmark Dec 25 EUA contract closing at EUR 71.57/t on Friday, marking a marginal weekly gain of EUR 0.01. Price action was restrained by mixed signals, including weaker gas prices, offset policy uncertainty, and conflicting US tariff developments. Investment funds continued to increase their net long position in EUAs for a fourth consecutive week, reaching 17.8m tonnes—up 1m tonnes from the previous week—reflecting steady speculative interest despite low liquidity during the holiday-shortened trading period.
|
|
Finally, futures showed a general downwards trend overall. Q3 25 went down by 2.2% reaching EUR 70.1/MWh. Q4 25 slid by 3.0% reaching EUR 78.5/MWh by the end of the week. Q1 26 closed the week at EUR 66.6/MWh, which represented a drop of 3.0%. Finally, on the yearly front, cal 26 reached EUR 61.0/MWh by the end of the week (-2.7%) and cal 27 closed at EUR 57.2/MWh on Friday, a loss of 2.2% compared to the week before.
|
Why you are receiving this email
|
You are receiving this email because you are subscribed to our Power Markets Weekly report - IBERIA. If you no longer wish to receive this report, you can opt-out of this email using the button on the right.
|
|
|
|
DNV, Calle Santa Maria Magdalena 14, 28016 Madrid
|
|
|
|
|
This e-mail and any attachments thereto may contain confidential information and/or information protected by intellectual property rights for the exclusive attention of the intended addressees named above. If you have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify the sender by return e-mail and delete this message and its attachments. Unauthorized use, copying or further full or partial distribution of this e-mail or its contents is prohibited.
|
Your
data appears in a file under the responsibility of DNV Maritime and Energy, S.L.U. - NIF: 82800798 Postal address: Calle Santa Maria Magdalena, 14 - Planta 2, 28016, Madrid, E-mail: power-markets-weekly@dnv.com. On behalf of the company we treat the information you provide us with in order to send you market information, information related to our services and invitations to events. The data provided will be kept as long as you do not request the cessation of the activity. The data will not be transferred to third parties except in cases where there is a legal obligation. You have the right to obtain confirmation on whether in DNV GL Services Spain S.L. we are treating your personal data so you have the right to access your personal data, rectify inaccurate data or request its deletion when the data is no longer necessary.
|
DNV GL Services Spain S.L. publishes this weekly report using public information from OMIE, REE y MEFF. This document is for information purposes only. Its partial or total reproduction is authorized while mentioning its source as DNV. Opinions herein expressed are proprietary.
|
|
|
