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VOL 7 | NUM 39 | 27 May 2025
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IBERIA | 19 - 25 May 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average price declined to its annual low in 2025, extending over negative and minimum prices
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 9.8/MWh last week, registering a drop of 46% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 18.2/MWh). It set the lowest weekly average price for 2025. This weekly price was 79% lower than in 2024 (EUR 46.4/MWh) and 88% lower than in 2023 (EUR 81.5/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 61.3/MWh, 72% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 35.6/MWh) and 30% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 87.8/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 1.5%, reaching 5.42 TWh, compared to the 5.34 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- A increase in wind generation share by 5.4 pp and solar PV (2.4 pp)
- Consequently, the following technologies reduced their share: hydro (-5.3 pp) and nuclear (-1.6 pp)
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Global renewable energy share increased from 65.6% to 68.2% since the previous week, thanks to the boost of wind and solar PV generation.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM presented prices around or below EUR 0/MWh for 43% of the time, setting a record-low for the week. These drops occurred mainly during solar hours, and specially on the weekend. The lowest DAM ever recorded in Spain was reached again this week: EUR -15/MWh on Sunday between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. Additionally, the Intraday Market dropped to EUR -59.91/MWh on Tuesday at noon. The maximum price for the week was EUR 68.21/MWh, set on Wednesday at 9 p.m.
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French and Portuguese DAM followed a similar trend, with the continuation of price decoupling between Spain and Portugal during solar hours. Portuguese prices remained above the Spanish average but did not set any negative prices during the week.
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The SWE grid coupling was 30%, lower than the value recorded the previous week, 46%:
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- Spain-Portugal: 54%
- Spain-France: 35%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 30%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 9.8/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 15/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 13.2/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 19.3/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 4.3 GW, reaching a lower value than the previous week, at 4.6 GW. Trillo extended its maintenance until May 26, Ascó 2 remains under maintenance until June 12
- Hydraulic generation represented a relevant generation, except for solar hours when solar and wind technologies covered the market. The hourly average production was 6.1 GW. Additionally, pumping was registered all days for Portugal for solar hours and in Spain from Friday to Sunday
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 4.2 GW, with a weekly maximum value of 6.1 GW at 10 p.m. on Tuesday
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- Solar PV was the first source of electricity during 47% of the week, followed by hydro (37%) and wind (16%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 44% and 74% of total generation, consistent with values observed in the previous week (48% and 73%). Wind's maximum share reached 43% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 57%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 1.1 TWh, 40% higher than the previous week
- Solar generation was 1.34 TWh, 12% higher than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR -0.7/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 5.8/MWh
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Spain
EUR 12.4/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 13.5/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DAM price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices ended the week at USD 64.78/bbl due to uncertainty about the economic impact of US trade tariffs on China's economy and the possibility of increased supply by Opec+. On Wednesday, the crude oil benchmark reached USD 66.63 per barrel after reports suggested that Israel was preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions and tensions in the Middle East. These tensions were later alleviated.
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European gas prices reached a 6-week high: on Wednesday, the contract peaked at EUR 37.82/MWh, the highest since 7 April, due to planned maintenance outages in Norway. Prices increased despite Norway's maintenance program already being factored in, influenced by geopolitical factors and weather forecast. However, the global LNG oversupply is contributing to a softer market, with LNG imports rising around 20% compared to the same period last year, starting from April. Additionally, EU storage sites were reported at 45.3%, compared to 67.5% one year ago.
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European carbon prices increased from Tuesday to Thursday, exceeding EUR 73/t. This rise mirrored gains in the broader energy market, influenced by reduced Norwegian gas flows to Europe and the absence of the fortnightly Polish EUA primary auctions this week. EUAs demonstrated a more subdued reaction to the ETS linkage discussions on Monday, with the benchmark Dec 25 EUA contract closing lower session-on-session at EUR 70.42/t on the day of the announcement. Additionally, investment funds' net long position in EU carbon allowances reached a seven-week high of 16.8m EUAs, reflecting an increase of 7.7m EUAs for the week.
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Finally, futures presented an increasing trend. Q3 25 took the largest upwards shift, increasing by 8.2% and closing the week at EUR 71.70/MWh. Q4 25 and Q1 26 also rose by 3.9% and 2.9%, ending the week at EUR 80.92/MWh and 68.65/MWh, respectively. On the yearly front, cal 26 added 2.3% and closed at EUR 62.70/MWh, while cal 27 kept stable with +0.9% and closed at EUR 58.55/MWh.
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