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VOL 7 | NUM 38 | 20 May 2025
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IBERIA | 12 - 18 May 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market average price increases along with higher demand and lower wind output
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 18.2/MWh last week, registering a rise of 48% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 12.3/MWh). This weekly price was 33% lower than in 2024 (EUR 27.3/MWh) and 62% lower than in 2023 (EUR 48.1/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 63.8/MWh, 82% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 35.1/MWh) and 28% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 88.1/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 1.5%, reaching 5.34 TWh, compared to the 5.26 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- A drop of wind generation (- 3.7 pp)
- An increase in solar PV (+ 2.6 pp) and solar thermal (+1.5 pp)
- An increase in nuclear generation (+ 3.0 pp)
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Global renewable energy share decreased from 66.5% to 65.6% since the previous week. This decrease was primarily fueled by the drop in wind generation, though partially compensated by the solar PV.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM presented values close or lower than EUR 0/MWh in 62 hours, 37% of the week. Negative prices were observed every day of the week during solar hours, going as low as EUR -15/MWh on Sunday at 2 p.m. The maximum price was EUR 128.1/MWh reached on Tuesday at 9 p.m: on such day, day-night spread reached EUR 130.6/MWh.
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Portugal showed higher prices compared to Spain, though the decoupling of prices decreased in comparison to the previous week, now only being observed during solar hours.
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The SWE grid coupling was 46%, much higher than the value recorded the previous week, 18%:
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- Spain-Portugal: 57%
- Spain-France: 57%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 46%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 18.2/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 24.6/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 25.6/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 23.1/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 4.6 GW, reaching a higher value than the previous week, at 3.7 GW. Trillo extended its maintenance until May 21, Ascó 2 remains under maintenance until June 12, and Almaraz is operating partially until May 24.
- Hydraulic generation represented a relevant generation, except for solar hours when solar and wind technologies covered the market. The hourly average production was 7.6 GW.
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 4.2 GW, with a weekly maximum value of 6.4 GW at 9 p.m. on Monday.
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- Hydro was the first source of electricity during 48% of the week, followed by solar PV (46%) and wind (6%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 48% and 73% of total generation, lower than values observed in the previous week (54% and 79%). Wind's maximum share reached 37% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 53%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 0.76 TWh, 19% lower than the previous week
- Solar generation was 1.20 TWh, 15% higher than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 0.7/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 15.7/MWh
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Spain
EUR 18.9/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 26.5/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices rose this week, in a context of rising Opec+ supply and fading momentum from US-China trade talks. Prices went from USD 63.91/bbl to USD 65.41/bbl, on a weekly basis. Hopes of a US-Iran nuclear deal also weighed on sentiment, with possible sanctions relief raising the risk of more Iranian oil exports. Meanwhile, the IEA cut its demand growth outlook, warning of oversupply as inventories are set to climb sharply through 2026.
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European gas prices were last seen at EUR 35.16/MWh on Friday. Prices traded largely sideways this week as mixed fundamentals and geopolitical developments kept the market stable. A 90-day US-China tariff truce lifted early sentiment, but warmer weather and rising storage levels capped gains. EU gas inventories reached 43.4% full, up nearly 8 percentage points on the month but still well below last year’s 65.5%.
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European carbon prices rose 6% this week, driven by improved sentiment and growing investor confidence. The Dec 25 EUA contract climbed from EUR 70.39/t to EUR 74.83/t, hitting a six-week high on Friday. Optimism around potential EU-UK ETS linkage and reduced macroeconomic uncertainty also contributed to the upward momentum. 11.3M EUAs are scheduled for auctions during the next week.
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Finally, futures showed a mixed performance. Q4 25 decreased by 14.7%, while Q1 26 increased by 15.%. They ended at EUR 66.2/MWh and EUR 77.9/MWh, respectively. On the yearly front, cal 26 closed at EUR 61.3/MWh (-1.9%) and cal 27 at EUR 58.0/MWh (+0.0%).
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