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VOL 7 | NUM 37 | 13 May 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
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The Day-Ahead Market's weekly average price marked the lowest record in 2025, while the market was still getting back to normal after the blackout
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 12.3/MWh last week, the lowest weekly value for 2025. It registered a drop of 20% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 15.4/MWh). This weekly price was 60% lower than in 2024 (EUR 30.8/MWh) and 83% lower than in 2023 (EUR 73.8/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 66.2/MWh, 87% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 35.5/MWh) and 27% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 90.2/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Day Ahead Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 11.1%, reaching 5.26 TWh, compared to the 4.68 TWh recorded the previous week, after the black-out in the peninsula.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- An important increase of nuclear generation (7.8 pp), followed by solar PV (+2.0 pp)
- Consequently, a decrease in wind and gas generation by 7.0 pp and 4.7 pp, respectively
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Global renewable energy share decreased from 70.4% to 66.5% since the previous week. This decrease was primarily fueled by the drop in wind generation and the increase in the nuclear share.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM presented values close to EUR 0/MWh or lower during 38% of the week. With the exception of some peaks on the afternoon with less renewable production, prices kept values close to floor levels, setting a new low for the DAM in Spain: EUR -15/MWh on Sunday at 4 p.m. The maximum price was EUR 80.27/MWh reached on Friday at 9 p.m.
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Portugal showed higher prices compared to Spain almost all week, as the interconnection between them was not operating at maximum availability, creating the decoupling of prices. Moreover, prices in France dropped to EUR -111/MWh on Saturday and EUR -109/MWh on Sunday, between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. These events were replicated in more European countries.
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The SWE grid coupling was 18%, even lower compared to the value recorded the previous week, 23%. The back-to-normal after the Iberian black-out kept influencing this decoupling.The Spain-Portugal coupling was particulary low compared to historic records:
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- Spain-Portugal: 23%
- Spain-France: 65%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 18%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 12.3/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 20.9/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 34.1/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 9.6/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 3.7 GW. It started on Monday around 1.5 GW, but as the week progressed, more nuclear plants were reincorporated into the grid. By the end of Sunday, the generation reached 5 GW. Only two plants remain under planned maintenance: Trillo, until May 15, and Ascó 2, until June 12.
- Hydraulic generation represented a relevant generation, except for solar hours when solar and wind technologies covered the market. The hourly average production was 7.9 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 4.2 GW, with a weekly maximum value of 6.4 GW at 9 p.m. on Wednesday.
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- Hydro was the first source of electricity during 45% of the week, followed by solar PV (42%) and wind (13%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 54% and 79% of total generation, with lower upper values compared to what was observed in the previous week (51% and 90%). Wind's maximum share reached 41% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 55%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 0.94 TWh, 19% lower than the previous week
- Solar generation was 1.04 TWh, 26% higher than the previous week
Values for the week of April 28 through May 4 remain subject to revision and may be corrected.
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 1.4/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 31.9/MWh
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Spain
EUR 13.6/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 29.9/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DAM price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices started the week at USD 58.5/bbl, their lowest since 2021, after OPEC+ decided to increase oil production for the second consecutive month during a weekend meeting. However, prices rose by 6% to USD 63.91/bbl by the end of the week. This increase followed the announcement of a trade deal between the US and the UK, fostering optimism around the potential easing of US trade tariffs. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to impact the market
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European gas prices increased as traders evaluated the EU’s plan to phase out Russian gas imports by 2027 and its potential effects on regional supplies. The benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contract reached EUR 36.05/MWh on Friday, though it later settled at EUR 34.62/MWh due to adequate supply that countered ongoing efforts to attract LNG for restocking. Europe's gas inventories were last reported at 41.84% of capacity, up from 35% a month ago but below 63.83% at the same time last year
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European carbon prices saw an upward trend with the Dec 25 contract reaching a six-week high of EUR 71.76/t on Thursday, consistent with broader energy gains influenced by draft European Commission plans to phase out Russian gas imports by 2028. EUAs closed the week 4% higher at EUR 70.39/t. Additionally, the UK-EU summit scheduled for May 19 in London is anticipated to include discussions on linking their emissions trading schemes, which has been reflected in speculative investors’ increased net long position. Last week, over 11.3 million EUAs were auctioned at an average price of EUR 68.76/t with an average cover ratio of 1.87, and the net long position reached its highest level in nearly a month.
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Finally, futures did not oversee much movement. Q3 25 took the biggest rise, increasing by 1.4% to reach EUR 67.10/MWh. Q4 25 presented a parallel climb, closing the week at EUR 77.70/MWh (1.2%). Then, Q1 26 remained at EUR 67.52/MWh (0.4%). On the yearly front, cal 26 and cal 27 moved up by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, closing at EUR 62.50/MWh and EUR 58.00/MWh.
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