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VOL 7 | NUM 35 | 29 April 2025
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IBERIA | 21 - 27 April 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average price increased in a week with higher demand and lower wind generation, though with persisting negative prices
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 37.6/MWh last week, registering a rise of 176% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 13.6/MWh). This weekly price was 60% lower than in 2023 (EUR 93.9/MWh) and 47% higher than in 2024 (EUR 25.6/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 73.1/MWh, 102% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 36.2/MWh) and 20% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 91.4/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 1.1%, reaching 5.38 TWh, compared to the 5.32 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- An important drop of wind generation (- 16.5 pp)
- An increase in solar PV generation (+6.7 pp) and thermal solar (+1.6 pp)
- An increase in hydraulic generation (+ 6.0 pp)
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Global renewable energy share decreased from 75.7% to 73.4% since the previous week. This decrease is explained by the drop in wind generation, though partially compensated by the solar and hydraulic generation.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM showed a decreasing trend along the week, with prices at or below EUR 0/MWh observed from Wednesday onwards during solar hours, 24% of the time. The maximum hourly price of EUR 160/MWh was reached on Monday at 9 p.m. The minimum hourly price of the week, EUR -6.01/MWh, was reached on Sunday at 3 p.m., in a day with 10 hours of consecutive negative prices, from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m, and France reaching a price as low as EUR -57.5/MWh.
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Negative prices were also set in the Intraday market, from EUR -0.2/MWh to EUR -50/MWh, the latter observed during 6 consecutive hours on Sunday. Aditionally, during Friday morning and night, prices between Spain and Portugal decoupled, reaching a difference of up to EUR 62.2/MWh at 9 p.m.
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The SWE grid coupling was 33%, higher than the value recorded the previous week, 21%:
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- Spain-Portugal: 84%
- Spain-France: 39%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 33%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 37.6/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 37.9/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 36.2/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 58.7/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 3.3 GW, reaching a similar value than the previous week. It started the week at an average of 2.1 GW, increasing up to 3.7 GW on Thursday and Friday, to finalize on around 3.4 GW during the weekend. Trillo extended its planned maintenance until mid of May, while Cofrentes and Almaraz are also unavailable, expected to restart their production on May 1st and May 4th, respectively.
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout the week. The hourly average production was 8.4 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 3.2 GW, with weekly maximum values of around 7.2 GW on Monday at 9 p.m., and weekly minimum values of 1.3 GW on Friday at 3 p.m.
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- Solar PV was the first source of electricity during 45% of the week, followed by hydro (43%) and wind (13%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 58% and 83% of total generation, consistent with values observed in the previous week (52% and 83%). Wind's maximum share reached 43% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 62%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 0.9 TWh, 48% lower than the previous week
- Solar generation was 1.3 TWh, 39% higher than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 11.3/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 9.4/MWh
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Spain
EUR 36.9/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 30.7/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices fell 2% this week, pressured by the prospect of higher Opec+ supply and easing geopolitical risks. Brent crude dropped from around USD 68.0/bbl to USD 66.9/bbl. Progress in US-Iran nuclear talks and signs of a Ukraine ceasefire raised expectations of additional supply entering the market. Meanwhile, global growth concerns intensified following a downgrade by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of its forecast of global growth, and persistent US-China trade tensions. Overall, oil prices have dropped around 11% since Donald Trump announcement of tariffs on imports on its trading partners on April 2nd.
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European gas prices were last seen at EUR 32.4/MWh on Friday. Prices fell steadily through the week amid global market uncertainty and concerns over US-China trade tensions, reaching a multi-week low on Thursday. Milder weather, robust LNG supply, and stable pipeline flows kept demand muted. European gas storage stood at 37.7% full, around 20 percentage points lower than the same time last year, while EU storage injections are more than double the amount by this date one year ago.
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European carbon prices rose 1% this week, supported by improved macro sentiment and potential signs of de-escalation trade tensions between US and China. The Dec 25 EUA contract climbed from EUR 65.89/t to around EUR 67.10/t, after reaching a nine-day high of EUR 67.63/t on Friday. Investment funds’ net long position increased to 3.3m EUAs, up 1.6m compared to the previous week, recovering from the lowest level in nearly four months as financial market optimism returned.
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Finally, futures had a positive performance. Q3 25 and Q4 25 decreased by 0.2% and 0.6% respectively, while Q1 26 increased by 0.3%. They ended at EUR 67.6/MWh, EUR 78.8/MWh and EUR 67.2/MWh, respectively. On the yearly front, cal 26 closed at EUR 61.4/MWh (+0.7%) and cal 27 at EUR 56.6/MWh (+2.1%).
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