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VOL 7 | NUM 34 | 22 April 2025
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IBERIA | 14 - 20 April 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Low demand, high wind, low prices leading to nuclear shutdown set the pace for historic Easter week
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 13.6/MWh last week, plunging by 56% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 31.2/MWh). It registered the lowest average value for 2025. This weekly price was 167% higher than in 2024 (EUR 5.1/MWh) and 84% higher than in 2023 (EUR 87.7/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 75.4/MWh, 105% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 36.8/MWh) and 17% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 91.3/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by 3.6%, reaching 5.32 TWh, compared to the 5.51 TWh recorded the previous week. This drop was caused due to the festivities of the Easter week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- An important increase of wind generation by 17.8 pp
- A decrease of nuclear generation and hydro by 8.8 pp and 6.7 pp respectively
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Global renewable energy share spiked from 65.2% to 75.7% since the previous week. This decrease was primarily fueled by the wind momentum and the drop in nuclear generation.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM plunged during solar hours all days of the week, settling prices below EUR 0/MWh 33% of the time. Even further, the average for Saturday was EUR 1.72/MWh, the lowest daily value for 2025. Several factors have influenced: low demand due to the holidays, high hydro availability thanks to the rains during the months of February and March, and the high wind and solar production pushed prices down and nuclear out of the mix. The maximum price of the week was EUR 107.5/MWh, reached on Thursday at 9 p.m., while the lowest was EUR -4.99/MWh, reached on Sunday at 2 p.m.
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Negative prices were also set in the Intraday market, from EUR -0.2/MWh to EUR -6.85/MWh. Additionally, on Sunday from 8 p.m. until 10 p.m. prices between Spain and Portugal decoupled, even reaching a difference of almost EUR 50/MWh at 9 p.m.
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The SWE grid coupling was 21%, lower to the value recorded the previous week, 47%:
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- Spain-Portugal: 97%
- Spain-France: 22%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 21%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 13.6/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 14.2/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 12.9/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 36.9/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 3 GW. It started the week at an average of 5.8 GW, but due to the low prices in the Day-Ahead market Almaraz I and II, Cofrentes and Asco I stopped producing, as demand was met by the use of renewables. Hence, the average generation of Sunday was 2 GW. Trillo is still under planned maintenance until the end of April
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout the week with a relevant baseload generation, except during solar hours when it decreased its production. The hourly average production was 6.4 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 2.9 GW, with weekly maximum values of around 5.1 GW on Thursday at 9 p.m., and minimum values of around 1.6 GW on Wednesday at 1 p.m.
- Cogeneration & others data is missing on Sunday from 7 p.m. to 9 p.m.
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- Wind was the first source of electricity during 49% of the week, followed by solar PV (33%) and hydro (18%). Additionally, for the first time, wind and solar PV covered the demand by more than 100% in Spain for several hours on Thursday
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 52% and 83% of total generation, higher than the values observed in the previous week (44% and 74%). Wind's maximum share reached 52% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 51%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 1.8 TWh, 102% higher than the previous week
- Solar generation was 0.95 TWh, 5% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 2/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 1.6/MWh
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Spain
EUR 13.4/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 10.4/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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Oil prices experienced their first weekly gain in three weeks as markets prepared to close for the Good Friday and Easter holidays. The price closed at USD 67.96/bbl, the highest value since April 3rd, marking a 5% increase since the start of the week. However, prices have decreased by approximately 14% since the announcement of tariffs by President Trump on April 2nd. They have also been influenced by OPEC+'s decision to increase production to 411,000 barrels per day in May, up from the initially planned 135,000 barrels per day. Additionally, oil prices rose following new US sanctions aimed at limiting Iranian crude exports.
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European gas prices traded around EUR 34-35/MWh, closing the week at EUR 35.7/MWh on Thursday as the Easter break and a balance of bearish and bullish factors resulted in minimal movement over the week. Bullish factors such as the unplanned maintenance of Dvalin and Aasta Hansteen gas fields in Norway were balanced by the informal rumors that the EU would relax the target storage rules, but without official confirmation. Meanwhile, European gas storage facilities were pegged at 35.96% full. Similar to oil prices, the gas market remains vigilant to the impact of US tariffs.
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European carbon prices rose to their highest since April 2nd, reaching EUR 67.95/t. Prices were supported around EUR 66-67/t during the week, except on Thursday when TTF and CO2 prices diverged ahead of Easter Break and the CO2 price dropped to EUR 65.89/t. Investment funds' net long position in European carbon allowances (EUAs) decreased for the third week, with total longs at 53.2 million EUAs after a loss of 5.9 million from the previous week. Short positions increased by 8.2 million EUAs to 51.5 million, the highest since late October.
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Finally, futures had a mixed performance. Q3 25 dropped by 2.9% to close at EUR 67.75/MWh while Q4 25 took the largest increase by 4.2% ending at EUR 79.25/MWh. Q1 26 rose by 2.3% and closed at EUR 67/MWh. On the yearly front, cal 26 jumped to EUR 61.0/MWh (+2.5%) while cal 27 remained stable at EUR 55.5/MWh (+0.5%).
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