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VOL 7 | NUM 32 | 8 April 2025
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IBERIA | 31 March - 6 April 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Spring continues, keeping average Day-ahead market prices far from winter levels
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 28.6/MWh last week, registering a decrease of 7% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 30.8/MWh). It set the lowest average for 2025 so far. This weekly price was 550% higher than in 2024 (EUR 4.4/MWh) and 64% lower than in 20223 (EUR 79.6/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 82.9/MWh, 101% lower than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 41.2/MWh) and 12% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 94.7/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by 5.7%, reaching 5.63 TWh, compared to the 5.95 TWh recorded the previous week. Milder weather and the arrival of spring have been the driver to push demand down.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Drop in solar PV (-1.5 pp) and thermal solar (-1 pp)
- Increase in imports (+1.7 pp)
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Global renewable energy share decreased from 70.3% to 68.2% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM presented high volatility intraday, with prices reaching floor levels during solar hours to then fast ramp-up for the afternoon demand peak. The maximum price for the week was reached on one of those ramp-ups: on Monday at 9 p.m. the hourly price reached EUR 197.25/MWh. Negatives prices were again seen during the week, with a minimum price of EUR -1.54/MWh on Sunday from 11 a.m. to noon. Prices close to EUR 0/MWh or lower were reached 32% of the time.
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French DAM price significantly dropped on Sunday during solar hours, with the lowest value settled at EUR -115.46/MWh. Prices were affected by multiple drivers, such as export limits to UK and Northern Italy and flow-based optimization.
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Data referring to the technologies that set the price during the week are not available at the time of publication of this newsletter.
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The SWE grid coupling was 43%, significantly higher compared to the value recorded the previous week, 13%:
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- Spain-Portugal: 88%
- Spain-France: 46%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 43%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 28.6/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 35.3/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 28.6/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 38.3/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 5.7 GW, lower than the previous week. Trillo is under scheduled maintenance until April 26, while other plants decided for the third week in a row to lower their output during the weekend due to the low prices scheduled for the Day-ahead market.
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout most of the week with a relevant baseload generation. The hourly average production was 8.4 GW.
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 2.6 GW, with weekly maximum values of around 8.0 GW on Monday at 9 p.m., and minimum values of around 1.2 GW on Tuesday at 1 p.m.
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- Hydro was the first source of electricity during 39% of the week, followed by wind (34%) and solar PV (27%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 50% and 79% of total generation, consistent with values observed in the previous week (51% and 77%). Wind's maximum share reached 51% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 51%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 1.4 TWh, 2% lower than the previous week
- Solar generation was 0.88 TWh, 14% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 6.2/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 6.3/MWh
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Spain
EUR 23.9/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 17.7/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices ended the with a loss of 12%, with values settling on Monday at USD 74.77/bbl and closing on Friday at USD 65.58/bbl. Prices reached five-week highs early on Tuesday (USD 75.47/bbl). These movements were primarily due to the US president’s announcement of 10% tariffs on all imports to the US. China will face higher rates of 34%, while the US will impose a 20% tariff on the EU. Additionally, OPEC+ announced on Thursday that it would advance its plan for oil output increases. The alliance now aims to return 411,000 bbl/day to the market in May, up from the initially planned 135,000 bbl/day.
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European gas prices fell to EUR 35.15/MWh on Friday, its lowest level since late September 2024, even though they closed the week slightly higher at EUR 36.4/MWh (representing a drop of 11% compared to the previous Friday). As explained above, the gas market also priced in the effects of the US tariffs. Norwegian flows were also reduced last week due to planned maintenance at the Nyhamna, Aasta Hansteen, and Dvalin gas fields. Finally, European storage units were last seen at 34.4%, down 0.8 percentage points week on week.
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European carbon prices concluded the week 7% lower on Friday at EUR 63.82/t, as EUAs have not been immune to the prevailing risk-off sentiment across global markets following the US tariff announcement. Earlier on Friday, the price dropped to EUR 62.69/t, marking the lowest traded level since October, 2024. Investment funds have observed a continued decline in their net long position in EUAs since early February. The European Energy Exchange (EEX) is scheduled to auction 11.3 million allowances next week, a decrease from 13.4 million this week.
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Finally, futures performed negatively for the second week in a row. Q3 25 took the largest loss, closing at EUR 69.00/MWh (-6.8%). Q4 25 decreased by 5.3%, closing at EUR 76.00/MWh and Q1 26 ended at EUR 65.25/MWh (-3.3%). On the yearly front, drops were slightly lower: cal 26 slipped by 2.3% and cal 27 by 1.8%, closing at EUR 59.00/MWh and EUR 54,75/MWh, respectively.
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