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VOL 7 | NUM 31 | 1 April 2025
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IBERIA | 24 - 30 March 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly prices dropped in a week with the lowest historical negative price, alongside low demand
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 30.8/MWh last week, registering a drop of 43% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 35.6/MWh). This weekly price was 481% higher than in 2024 (EUR 5.3/MWh) and 43% lower than in 2023 (EUR 54.4/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 87.1/MWh, 98% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 44.0/MWh) and 9% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 95.8/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by 5.4%, reaching 5.95 TWh, compared to the 6.27 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- An important drop of wind generation (- 11.7 pp)
- An increase in solar generation (+ 6.3 pp)
- Consequently, an increase in gas generation (+ 1.1 pp) and hydraulic generation (+ 2.8 pp)
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Global renewable energy share decreased from 71.2% to 70.3% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM showed a decreasing trend along the week, and particularly during the weekend. The maximum hourly price of EUR 179.1/MWh was reached on Monday at 7 p.m. The minimum hourly price of the week and also minimum historical price was EUR -5.21/MWh, reached on Sunday at 2 p.m. This occurred in a context of high renewable output and low demand, with Sunday being also the day with the lowest demand of 2025 so far.
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Prices lower than EUR 1.0/MWh were recorded during 60 hours, 36% of the week. Additionally, negative Intra-market prices were set through the week, with a minimum of EUR -11.7/MWh.
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Data referring to the technologies that set the price during the week are not available at the time of publication of this newsletter.
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The SWE grid coupling was 13%, 13% lower compared to the recorded the previous week (26%):
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- Spain-Portugal: 78%
- Spain-France: 15%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 13%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 30.8/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 33.2/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 31.1/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 71.3/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 5.9 GW, slightly lower than the previous week. Trillo started its scheduled maintenance from March 24 until April 26.
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout most of the week with a relevant baseload generation, except during Sunday afternoon. The hourly average production was 8.9 GW.
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 3.0 GW, with weekly maximum values of around 6.9 GW on Wednesday afternoon, and minimum values of around 1.2 GW on Wednesday at 10 a.m.
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- Hydro was the first source of electricity during 43% of the week, followed by solar PV (38%) and wind (18%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 51% and 77% of total generation, lower than the values observed in the previous week (55% and 80%). Wind's maximum share reached 46% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 47%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 1.4 TWh, 36% lower than the previous week
- Solar generation was 1.03 TWh, 49% higher than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 4.1/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 3.8/MWh
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Spain
EUR 34.5/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 29.2/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices posted a third consecutive weekly gain, with Brent crude settling at USD 73.95/bbl on Friday. Prices peaked at a one-month high of USD 74.17/bbl on Wednesday, supported by tightening US crude inventories and geopolitical risks. US trade and tariff policies weighed on investor sentiment, raising concerns over economic growth and oil demand. The US imposed new 25% tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan crude, fueling supply concerns. Meanwhile, Opec+ members are set to increase output by 139,000 bbl/day starting in April.
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European gas prices were last seen at EUR 41.2/MWh on Friday. Mild weather forecasts and steady LNG imports weighed on prices early in the week, while low storage levels and supply risks provided support. The TTF front month hit a one-week low midweek before rebounding Thursday as storage levels remained well below last year. European gas storage stood at 33.6% full, down 25.3 points from last year.
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European carbon prices fell 3% this week, pressured by increased auction supply and mild weather forecasts reducing heating demand. The Dec 25 EUA contract dropped from EUR 71.45/t to around EUR 69.15/t. Investor concerns over France’s proposals to stabilize the EU ETS and ETS 2 mechanisms triggered additional selling. Auction supply rose to 11.3m EUAs this week, with 13.4m set for next week.
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Finally, futures futures had a negative performance. Q3 25 decreased by -4.15%, while Q4 25 and Q1 26 decreased by 2.5% and 0.2% respectively, ending at EUR 74.0/MWh, EUR 80.2/MWh and EUR 67.5/MWh, respectively. On the yearly front, cal 26 closed at EUR 60.4/MWh (-0.2%) and cal 27 at EUR 55.8/MWh (-0.1%).
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