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VOL 7 | NUM 30 | 25 March 2025
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IBERIA | 17 - 23 March 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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The beginning of spring brought down Day-Ahead Market prices, which set the lowest weekly average of 2025 at EUR 35.6/MWh.
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 35.6/MWh last week, registering a drop of 56% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 80.4/MWh). It set the lowest average weekly price since the start of 2025. This weekly price was 1% lower than in 2024 (EUR 35.8/MWh) and 55% lower than in 2023 (EUR 79.6/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 91.8/MWh, 94% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 47.2/MWh) and 8% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 99.3/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia slightly increased by 0.1%, reaching 6.27 TWh, the same level compared to the one recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- An important increase of wind generation (14.2 pp)
- Consequently, the following technologies reduced their share in the energy mix: hydro (- 5.3 pp), gas (- 3.2 pp), nuclear (- 2.6 pp), cogeneration & others (- 1.7 pp) and solar PV (- 1.3 pp)
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Global renewable energy share increased from 63.9% to 71.2% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM supported higher prices on Monday and Tuesday, but from Wednesday onwards prices were close to floor levels with the exception of some peaks. On Tuesday, market agents had to send for the first time their bids in the Intraday market with a 15 minute resolution, shifting from the previously hourly dispatch. Then, on Wednesday, the 15-market time unit (MTU) was official. This change, in parallel with the abundant rains across the Peninsula, kept prices lower for the rest of the week.
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The maximum price was EUR 170/MWh, set on Monday at 7 p.m. by hydro. On Saturday at 3 p.m., the hourly price was -0.01/MWh, establishing the first negative DAM in Spain for 2025. Additionally, negative Intra-market prices were set through the week, with a minimum of EUR -5/MWh.
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Data referring to the technologies that set the price during the week are not available at the time of publication of this newsletter.
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The SWE grid coupling was 26%, 10% lower compared to the value recorded the previous week (36%):
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- Spain-Portugal: 95%
- Spain-France: 26%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 26%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 35.6/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 34.5/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 34/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 56.9/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 6.1 GW. Trillo plant reduced its generation from Wednesday onwards due to an operational unavailability. It will start its scheduled maintenance from March 24 until April 26.
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout the week with a relevant baseload generation, supported by the heavy rains across the Peninsula. The hourly average production was 8.4 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 2.7 GW, with weekly maximum values of around 7 GW on Monday afternoon, and minimum values of around 1.1 GW on Friday at 9 a.m.
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- Wind was the first source of electricity during 63% of the week, followed by hydro (28%) and solar PV (10%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 50% and 80% of total generation, with an improved upper bound compared to the values observed in the previous week (51% and 73%). Wind's maximum share reached 61% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 41%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 2.24 TWh, 72% higher than the previous week
- Solar generation was 0.7 TWh, 14% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 14.5/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 15.8/MWh
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Spain
EUR 30.6/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 25.9/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, the front-month contract for Brent crude North Sea oil was last seen at USD 72.16/bbl, with a rise of 2% on the week. On Thursday, OPEC+ announced a new production schedule for seven member countries to make output cuts to compensate for exceeding agreed levels. This decision, along with recent US sanctions on Iran, led to an increase in oil prices. Additionally, China’s leadership has committed to measures aimed at increasing domestic consumer spending, which is expected to enhance oil demand in the world’s second largest economy this year.
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European gas prices were last seen at EUR 42.6/MWh on Friday. Earlier, they gained as much as 6% to hit EUR 45.50/MWh, its highest level since 4 March, due to reports of a fire at Russia’s Sudzha gas metering station. Concerns about supply security increased after Russia did not agree on an unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine during talks at the beginning of the week. Geopolitical factors affected price movements along with fundamentals, as the end of winter and milder temperatures balanced the market sentiment. EU storage sites were reported at 34% of capacity, approximately 1.9 percentage points lower than the previous week. One year ago, storages were filled to 59.4%.
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European carbon prices settled the week at EUR 71.45/t, down from Thursday EUR 1.56/t, amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Since Wednesday, the contract occasionally traded above EUR 74/t for the first time in three weeks due to stalled peace talks between the US and Russia over the Ukraine war. Rising gas prices have heightened supply security concerns, typically boosting coal-fired generation and increasing demand for emissions certificates.
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Finally, futures stayed with a stable profile. Q3 25 remained almost equal, slightly dropping by -0.3% to close at EUR 77.2/MWh. Q4 25 increased by 1% and Q1 26 by 2.9%, ending the week at EUR 82.28/MWh and 67.65/MWh, respectively. On the yearly front, cal 26 rose by 2.2% (EUR 60.55/MWh) and cal 27 by 0.1% (EUR 55.80/MWh).
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