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VOL 7 | NUM 29 | 18 March 2025
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IBERIA | 10 - 16 March 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average price increased alongside a significant drop in wind generation
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 80.3/MWh last week, registering a rise of 22% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 65.9/MWh). This weekly price was 142% higher than in 2024 (EUR 33.2/MWh) and 4% lower than in 2023 (EUR 83.8/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 96.9/MWh, 101% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 48.3/MWh) and 4 lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 101.0/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 2.5%, reaching 6.27 TWh, compared to the 6.11 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- An important drop of wind generation (- 13.7 pp)
- Consequently, an increase in gas generation (+ 2.7 pp) and hydraulic generation (+ 8.7 pp), somewhat compensated by an increase in solar generation (+3.0 pp)
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Global renewable energy share decreased from 65.8% to 63.9% since the previous week. This decrease was primarily influenced by the drop in wind generation.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM showed a a decreasing trend along the week, particularly from Friday onwards. The maximum hourly price of EUR 176.7/MWh was reached on Wednesday at 7 p.m. set by renewables, cogeneration and waste. The minimum hourly price of the week was observed during Saturday when prices dropped to EUR 0/MWh, from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m., also set by renewables, cogeneration and waste.
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On Saturday the Intraday Market set various negative prices, between EUR -2.0/MWh and -0.4/MWh.
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The technologies setting the price in the Spanish DAM were:
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- Hydraulic (including pumping): 71% at EUR 81.6/MWh on average (week before: 67% at EUR 76.9/MWh)
- Gas CC: 23% at EUR 123/MWh on average (week before: 16% at EUR 135/MWh)
- Renewables, cogeneration and waste: 26% at EUR 78/MWh on average (week before: 29% at EUR 43/MWh )
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The SWE grid coupling was 36%, lower than the value recorded the previous week, 39%:
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- Spain-Portugal: 97%
- Spain-France: 36%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 36%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 80.3/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 77.9/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 79.6/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 100.7/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 7.1 GW, with all the available fleet in normal operation.
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout the week with a relevant baseload generation, specially from Wednesday to Friday, to compensate the lack of wind generation. The hourly average production was 10.3 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 3.9 GW, with weekly maximum values of around 9.5 GW on Wednesday afternoon, and minimum values of around 1.3 GW on Saturday at 1 p.m.
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- Hydro was the first source of electricity during 55% of the week, followed by solar PV (28%) and wind (16%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 51% and 73% of total generation, slightly lower than the values observed in the previous week (56% and 76%). Wind's maximum share reached 40% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 46%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 1.3 TWh, 37% lower than the previous week
- Solar generation was 0.8 TWh, 36% higher than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 51.2/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 49.2/MWh
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Spain
EUR 82.1/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 84.1/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices settled the week at USD 70.58/bbl. Prices fell early in the week on concerns that US trade policy could slow oil demand growth, while OPEC+ confirmed plans to start unwinding production cuts from April. Prices rebounded midweek and the Ice Brent benchmark posted its biggest gain since the end of February. Oil ended the week higher after Russian President dampened hopes for a quick resolution to the Ukraine war and a return of Russian supplies to the market.
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European gas prices fluctuated amid cold weather, low wind output, and geopolitical uncertainty. Cold weather and low wind output initially drove prices higher, while midweek volatility was tied to US-Ukraine peace talks. A wind lull supported prices Thursday, while speculation and reduced long positions influenced movements. European gas storage facilities were reported to be 35.9% full, 24.2 points lower than last year. Gas prices averaged EUR 42.1/MWh this week.
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European carbon prices rebounded this week, with the Dec 25 EUA contract rising 4% to EUR 71.33/t on Friday. The recovery followed gains in gas prices and colder weather forecasts. Next week, 13.4m EUAs are set for auction, compared to 11.3m allowances this week.
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Finally, futures had a negative performance, except for Q3 25, which increased by 1.2% to EUR 77.4/MWh. Q4 25 and Q1 26 decreased by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively, ending at EUR 81.5/MWh and EUR 65.8/MWh. On the yearly front, cal 26 closed at EUR 59.23/MWh (-0.03%) and cal 27 at EUR 55.8/MWh (-0.1%).
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