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VOL 7 | NUM 28 | 11 March 2025
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IBERIA | 3 - 9 March 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average price marked the second lowest average price for 2025
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 65.9/MWh last week, registering a 28% decrease compared to the previous week's average (EUR 91.7/MWh). This weekly price was 367% higher than in 2024 (EUR 14.1/MWh) and 22% lower than in 2023 (EUR 84.9/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 98.6/MWh, 98% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 9.8/MWh) and 4% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 102.8/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia remained almost equal (+0.3%), reaching 6.11 TWh, compared to the 6.09 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Increase of wind generation by 8.3 pp
- Consequently, gas generation decreased by 3.0 pp. Solar PV also reduced their share by 2.9 pp
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Global renewable energy share slightly increased from 61.3% to 65.8% since the previous week, balancing between the increase of wind generation and the drop of solar PV.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM presented a decreasing trend through the week, specially from Friday onwards. The minimum hourly price was reached on this period: EUR 0.02/MWh set on Saturday at 3 p.m. by hydro. The maximum price was reached at the beginning of the week: on Monday at 8 p.m. hydro pumping set the price at EUR 149/MWh. Additionally, on Sunday afternoon prices increased due to the lower wind generation.
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On Saturday the Intraday Market set several negative prices, between EUR -10.62/MWh and EUR -0.19/MWh.
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The technologies setting the price in the Spanish DAM were:
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- Hydraulic (including pumping): 67% at EUR 76.9/MWh on average (week before: 69% at EUR 97.1/MWh)
- Renewables, cogeneration and waste: 29% at EUR 43/MWh on average (week before: 29% at EUR 72/MWh)
- Gas CC: 1% at EUR 144/MWh on average (week before: 2% at EUR 173/MWh)
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The SWE grid coupling was 39%, equal to the value recorded the previous week:
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- Spain-Portugal: 99%
- Spain-France: 39%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 39%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 65.9/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 64.4/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 65.9/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 75.8/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 7 GW, with all the available fleet in normal operation, with the exception of a failure on Cofrentes plant during the weekend, lowering its generation
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout the week with more prevalent pumping on Portugal on the second half of the week. The hourly average production was 6.9 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 2.9 GW, with weekly maximum values of around 8.2 GW and minimum values of around 0.9 GW
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- Wind was the first source of electricity during 77% of the week, followed by hydro (14%) and solar PV (9%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 56% and 76% of total generation, with a remarkable rise in the lower bound compared to the values of the week before (39% and 73%). Wind's maximum share reached 58% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 40%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 2.2 TWh, 31% higher than the previous week
- Solar generation was 0.57 TWh, 23% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 48.2/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 48.9/MWh
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Spain
EUR 62.2/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 55.3/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, Brent crude North Sea set for biggest weekly fall in 5 months amid uncertainty. It settled the week at USD 70.36/MWh, while on Wednesday it hit its lowest level since December 2021, USD 68.33/bbl. On Monday, OPEC+ confirmed its plan to gradually phase out production cuts of 2.2m bbl/day monthly from April until September 2026, while maintaining additional voluntary cuts of around 1.7m bbl/day until then.
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European gas prices bounced off 5-month lows in technical recovery. TTF front month contract dropped as low as EUR 36.40/MWh in Friday, the lowest since 25 September. Nevertheless, it gained strength through the day and settled at EUR 39.97/MWh. Factors such as milder weather forecasts and the anticipated end of gas-for-heat demand have impacted prices, counterbalancing the geopolitical situation involving the US and Ukraine. European gas storage facilities were reported to be 37.2% full, 25.4 points lower compared to the same period last year.
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European carbon prices hit an 11-week low on Friday, EUR 66.78/t, and ended with a 3% weekly drop, closing at EUR 68.63/t. Milder weather conditions, along with macroeconomic factors, have placed bearish pressure on the market. A total of 13.4 million EUAs were successfully auctioned at an average price of EUR 68.1/t, with an average cover ratio of 1.93. An additional 13.4 million EUAs are scheduled for auction next week.
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Finally, futures had an overall negative performance. Q3 25 took the largest drop, decreasing by 5.9% to close at EUR 76.5/MWh. Q4 25 and Q1 26 had a similar performance, decreasing by 3.1% and 3.5% respectively, ending at EUR 82.00/MWh and EUR 65.85/MWh. On the yearly front, cal 26 closed at EUR 59.25/MWh (-2.9%) and cal 27 at EUR 55.80/MWh (-2.5%).
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