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VOL 7 | NUM 26 | 25 February 2025
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IBERIA | 17 - 23 February 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average price decreased, supported by milder temperatures and a lower demand
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 87.7/MWh last week, registering a 25% decrease compared to the previous week's average (EUR 117.6/MWh). This weekly price was 259% higher than in 2024 (EUR 24.4/MWh) and 35% lower than in 2023 (EUR 134.7/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 103.5/MWh, 73% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 59.9/MWh) and 3% higher than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 100.7/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by 6.2%, reaching 5.9 TWh, compared to the 6.27 TWh recorded the previous week. Demand decreased due to milder temperatures compared to the previous weeks.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- A drop of hydro (- 4.6 pp) and gas generation (-1.1 pp)
- An increase in nuclear generation (+ 2 pp) and wind (+ 1.9 pp)
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Global renewable energy share slightly decreased from 61.7% to 60% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM presented an overall decreasing trend, with higher prices by the start of the week and lower during the weekend. The maximum price was EUR 215.52/MWh, set on Monday at 7 p.m. by gas. The minimum price EUR 3.52/MWh was set on two different days: first on Friday from noon to 3 p.m. and on Sunday at 3 p.m., all of those set by renewables, cogeneration and waste.
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On Sunday the Intraday Market set two negative prices: at noon it reached EUR -1.08/MWh and at 3 p.m. -1.98/MWh.
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The technologies setting the price in the Spanish DAM were:
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- Hydraulic (including pumping): 58% at EUR 100.4/MWh on average (week before: 71% at EUR 120.6/MWh)
- Renewables, cogeneration and waste: 38% at EUR 60/MWh on average (week before: 26% at EUR 102/MWh )
- Gas CC: 4% at EUR 173/MWh on average (week before: 4% at EUR 162/MWh)
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The SWE grid coupling was 47%, higher to the value recorded the previous week (35%):
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- Spain-Portugal: 100%
- Spain-France: 47%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 47%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 87.7/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 88.6/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 87.7/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 100.2/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 7.1 GW, with all the available fleet in normal operation
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout the week with more relevant pumping on Sunday during solar hours. The hourly average production was 8.1 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 4 GW, with weekly maximum values of around 10.9 GW and minimum values of around 1 GW
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- Hydro was the first source of electricity during 45% of the week, followed by wind (26%) and solar PV (25%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 43% and 74% of total generation, consistent with values observed in the previous week (43% and 73%). Wind's maximum share reached 47% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 55%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 1.2 TWh, 5% higher than the previous week
- Solar generation was 0.84 TWh, 1% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 57.8/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 54/MWh
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Spain
EUR 74.5/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 71.5/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, the front-month contract for Brent crude North Sea oil closed the week at USD 74.43/bbl. The week was subjected to different geopolitical situations that could alter the market. On the one hand, informal talks of OPEC+ members suggested a potential delay in their plan to increase oil supply in April. On the other hand, the beginning of US-Russia peace talks about Ukraine supported uncertainty about the possibility of lifting Russia’s energy exports.
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European gas prices last traded at EUR 47.2/MWh, after falling to EUR 45.9/MWh on Friday, its lowest since 17 January. European gas prices continued their decline from last week’s two-year high linked to a combination of factors, which exerted bearish pressure: softer temperature forecasts and more wind generation, US-Russia talks on the future of Russian exports; and the possible relaxation of EU gas storage of filling targets of 90% by 1 November. Finally, European storage sites were last seen at 41.9% of capacity, down by 4.7 percentage points week on week.
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European carbon prices dropped to EUR 73.9/t from last Friday’s EUR 79.75/t, hitting a six-week low of EUR 72.26/t on Thursday. EUAs saw a 7% weekly loss as the market awaited Germany's federal election results. Speculative investors' net long position in carbon allowances narrowed for the first time in seven weeks, despite an increase in total long investments. This week, 13.4m EUAs were auctioned at an average price of EUR 73.73/t with a cover ratio of 1.75.
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To conclude, futures continued the downwards trend. Q2 25 took the largest loss, falling by 10.5% to reach EUR 46.55/MWh. Q3 25 and Q4 25 also registered losses, but with a lesser impact: both decreased around 3.7% closing at EUR 84.05/MWh and EUR 86.1/MWh, respectively. On the yearly front, cal 26 slid by 2.1%, ending at EUR 61.45/MWh. Cal 27 did not present any change, closing at the previous week’s value at EUR 57.25/MWh.
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