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VOL 7 | NUM 24 | 11 February 2025
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IBERIA | 3 - 9 February 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average price spiked after the drop of the previous week, correlated with the wind generation output
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 123.6.7/MWh last week, registering a 94% rise compared to the previous week's average (EUR 63.7.1/MWh). This weekly price was 156% higher than in 2024 (EUR 48.3/MWh) and 10% lower than in 2023 (EUR 138.1/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 103.8/MWh, 55% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 67/MWh) and 17% higher than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 88.7/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by 0.6%, reaching 6.46 TWh, compared to the 6.51 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- An important drop of wind generation (- 21.6 pp)
- Consequently, an increase in hydro (+ 6.8 pp), gas (+6.35 pp), solar PV (+4.4 pp) and cogeneration and others (+1.8 pp)
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Global renewable energy share decreased from 69.1% to 59.2% since the previous week. This decrease was primarily fueled by the drop in wind generation.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM remained high through the week, supported by the high demand and low wind generation. With the exception of three drops on Wednesday and the weekend, prices remained over EUR 100/MWh. The maximum price was EUR 240/MWh, reached on Tuesday at 8 p.m. and set by renewables, cogeneration and waste. The minimum price was EUR 30/MWh, reached on Wednesday at 2 p.m. and set by hydro.
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French DAM prices presented a similar profile compared to the Iberian ones, except some differenf behaviour on Monday and on the weekend
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The technologies setting the price in the Spanish DAM were:
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- Hydraulic (including pumping): 64% at EUR 125.74/MWh on average (week before: 49% at EUR 87.1/MWh)
- Renewables, cogeneration and waste: 26% at EUR 107/MWh on average (week before: 46% at EUR 32/MWh )
- Gas CC: 10% at EUR 151/MWh on average (week before: 13% at EUR 137/MWh)
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The SWE grid coupling was 40%, a higher value compared to the one recorded the previous week at 28%:
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- Spain-Portugal: 98%
- Spain-France: 41%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 40%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 123.6/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 120.8/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 123.4/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 138.1/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 7.1 GW, with all the available fleet in normal operation
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout the week with a component of baseload generation too. The hourly average production was 10.6 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 5.4 GW, with weekly maximum values of around 12.9 GW and minimum values of around 1.2 GW.
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- Hydro was the first source of electricity during 63% of the week, followed by solar PV (26%) and wind (11%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 43% and 73% of total generation, with a drop in both the lower and the upper bound compared to the previous week's values (53% and 78%). Wind's maximum share reached 32% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 48%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 0.96 TWh, 52% lower than the previous week
- Solar generation was 0.90 TWh, 44% higher than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 90.3/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 90.1/MWh
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Spain
EUR 118.4/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 119/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, the front-month contract for Brent crude North Sea oil was last seen at USD 74.66/bbl on Ice Futures, closing down for the third consecutive week on Friday, with Brent ending the session down 1.3% on the week. Prices rose on Monday after the US imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but fell on Tuesday after President Trump postponed the tariffs for a month. Canada and Mexico are major crude suppliers to the US, with Canada exporting about 4 million bbl/day and Mexico nearly 500,000 bbl/day. Meanwhile, OPEC+ decided to continue unwinding production cuts in April during their bi-monthly meeting. On Friday, oil prices rose again as the US administration imposed new sanctions on Iran to reduce its crude exports and curb its nuclear program.
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European gas prices last traded at EUR 55.72/MWh. Earlier, it reached EUR 56.1/MWh, its highest point since 13 October 2023 and surpassing Thursday’s high of EUR 55.46/MWh. EU storage levels were last seen at 50.6%, down by 4.1 percentage points week on week and 17.8 percentage points lower year on year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. The colder temperatures and low wind generation continued to provide bullish sentiment in the market, as well as fears over low storage volumes.
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European carbon prices were last seen at EUR 82.57/t. The contract rose from earlier in the week, after settling below EUR 81/t on Monday and Tuesday due to concerns over potential new US tariffs on the EU. It recovered slightly from Wednesday following an Ice report showing investment funds increasing their net long position in carbon allowances to nearly 55.6m tons. This net long position has been growing since mid-November 2024 and has increased weekly since late December. Over 13.4m EUAs were auctioned this week at an average price of EUR 79.56/t with a cover ratio of 1.78.
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Finally, electricity futures showed a mixed performance. Q2 25 took the largest lost, dropping by 5.81% to reach EUR 52.51/MWh by the end of the week. Q3 25 and Q4 25 remain almost equal, varying by -0.54% and +0.82% respectively, to close at EUR 91.75/MWh and EUR 92/MWh. On the yearly front, Cal 26 rose by 1.22% to end at EUR 65.3/MWh while cal 27 slightly slid by 0.10% to close at 60.35/MWh.
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