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VOL 7 | NUM 23 | 4 February 2025
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IBERIA | 27 January - 2 February 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Renewables surge drives Day-Ahead Market to its lowest weekly average of the year at EUR 63.7/MWh
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 63.7/MWh last week, registering a 38% drop compared to the previous week's average (EUR 103.1/MWh). This weekly price was 11% lower than in 2024 (EUR 71.9/MWh) and 41% lower than in 2023 (EUR 124.7/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 99.8/MWh, 60% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 70.8/MWh) and 14% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 78.9/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 7.7%, reaching 6.21 TWh, compared to the 6.35 TWh recorded the previous week, in line with the low temperatures registered in the Peninsula.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Significant rise in both wind generation (+5.2 pp) and solar PV generation (+ 3.9 pp). Hydro generation also registered a 2.3 pp rise
- A consequent decrease in gas generation (- 7 pp) thanks to a higher renewable availability. Imports also decreased by 2 pp
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Global renewable energy share saw a sharp increase from the 57.8% recorded on the previous week to 69.1%. This increase was primarily due to a higher availability of intermittent renewable sources.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM prices remained low at the start of the week with a reduced daily spread, then rose midweek, especially during evening peaks. Midday prices often dropped toward zero, leading to a daily spread of up to EUR 157.92/MWh on Saturday.
This trend was driven by high wind generation, which kept prices consistently low early in the week. As wind output declined later, evening prices rose, while increased solar PV generation caused sharp midday price drops, amplifying the daily spread. The week's maximum hourly price, EUR 184.48/MWh, occurred on Friday at 6 p.m., set by hydraulic generation. The lowest, EUR 0/MWh, was recorded on Thursday at 2 p.m., set by renewables, cogeneration and waste, and hydro generation.
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Frech DAM price mostly followed the Spanish DAM price trends, except that they did not present the significant dips in the middle of the day seen in Spain.
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The technologies setting the price in the Spanish DAM were:
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- Hydraulic (including pumping): 49% at EUR 87.1/MWh on average (week before: 61% at EUR 112.3/MWh)
- Renewables, cogeneration and waste: 46% at EUR 32/MWh on average (week before: 23% at EUR 59/MWh)
- Gas CC: 4% at EUR 153/MWh on average (week before: 13% at EUR 137/MWh)
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The SWE grid coupling was 28%, lower than the 39% recorded the previous week:
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- Spain-Portugal: 96%
- Spain-France: 30%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 28%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 63.7/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 66.4/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 63.3/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 90.6/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 7 GW, with all the available fleet in normal operation
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout the week with a higher baseload component in the second half of the week to compensate for the decrease in wind output. The hourly average production was 8 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 3 GW, with weekly maximum values of around 8 GW in the second half of the week and minimum values of around 1.2 GW at the start of the week when wind generation was higher.
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- Wind was the first source of electricity during 64% of the week, followed by hydro (23%) and solar PV (13%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 53% and 78% of total generation, with a significant rise in the lower bound compared to the previous week's values (39% and 76%). Wind's maximum share reached 59% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 45%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 2 TWh, 19% higher than the previous week
- Solar generation was 0.62 TWh, 75% higher than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 38.3/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 33.2/MWh
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Spain
EUR 50.4/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 49.7/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices fluctuated throughout the week, with Brent crude starting at USD 77.8/bbl on Monday, dropping below USD 77/bbl midweek, and then recovering to USD 77.2/bbl on Friday. The market reacted to US tariff threats, weak economic data from China, and ongoing pressure from Trump on OPEC to lower prices. US crude stockpiles increased for the first time this year, adding to volatility. Investors are now watching the OPEC+ meeting on February 3, where supply decisions could impact prices moving forward.
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European gas prices rose EUR 5.3 to EUR 52.7/MWh, a 11% increase from last Friday. Prices were driven by colder temperatures, lower wind generation, and rising carbon costs, with Dec 25 EUA closing at EUR 83.4/t. European storage levels fell to 54.7%, 16.3 pp below last year but still above the 50% February target. Earlier in the week, prices hit a 15-month high of EUR 52.8/MWh amid concerns over storage replenishment and reduced Norwegian pipeline flows.
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European carbon prices saw strong volatility last week, initially retreating on profit-taking and weaker gas before rebounding sharply to a 15-month high of EUR 84.5/t on Thursday before settling at EUR 83.5/t on Friday. The surge on Thursday was driven by colder weather forecasts, rising gas prices, and strong speculative buying. Investment funds increased their net long positions, and favorable coal-fired generation margins further supported EUA demand. However, persistent auction supply and weak industrial activity could limit further gains.
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To conclude, futures markets showed a general upwards trend, except for cal 26 that saw a drop. Q3 25 and Q4 25 went up the most (+ 3.5% and +3.9%), closing the week at EUR 92.25/MWh and EUR 91.25/MWh, respectively. Q2 25 saw a 1.3% rise reaching EUR 55.75/MWh by the end of the week. On the yearly front, cal 26 dropped by 2.3% closing at EUR 64.51/MWh on Friday, while cal 27 registered a 3.3% increase and reached EUR 60.41 by the end of the week.
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