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VOL 7 | NUM 22 | 28 January 2025
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IBERIA | 20 - 26 January 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market stayed over the EUR 100/MWh barrier despite the recovery of wind generation
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 103.1/MWh last week, registering a drop of 23% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 133.3/MWh). This weekly average price was 45% higher than in 2024 (EUR 71.0/MWh) and 52% higher than in 2023 (EUR 67.9/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 108.9/MWh, 55% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 70.3/MWh) and 62% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 67.2/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by 3.1%, reaching 6.35 TWh, compared to the 6.55 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Recovery of wind generation after the previous week drop (+12.4 pp)
- Decrease in solar PV ( -7.1 pp), gas ( -3.2 pp) and hydro ( -1.8 pp)
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Global renewable energy share slightly increased from 54.9% to 57.8% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM presented an overall decreasing trend through the week, with the exception of a peak of Thursday evening, when the maximum price for the week was reached: EUR 196.51/MWh at 7 p.m. and set by hydro. The minimum price was EUR 3.6/MWh, reached on Saturday at 3 p.m. and set by renewables, cogeneration and waste. Overall, the volatility within the week had a range of EUR 192.91/MWh.
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French DAM price significantly increased on Monday morning and afternoon, reaching peaks of EUR 289/MWh and EUR 473/MWh respectively.
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The technologies setting the price in the Spanish DAM were:
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- Hydraulic (including pumping): 61% at EUR 112.3/MWh on average (week before: 58% at EUR 138.6/MWh)
- Renewables, cogeneration and waste: 23% at EUR 59/MWh on average (week before: 20% at EUR 124/MWh )
- Gas CC: 13% at EUR 137/MWh on average (week before: 21% at EUR 126/MWh)
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The SWE grid coupling was 39%, below to the value recorded the previous week, 49%
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- Spain-Portugal: 97%
- Spain-France: 39%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 39%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 103.1/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 102.3/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 102.9/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 113.1/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 7 GW, having all the available fleet in normal operation except for Sunday morning when Cofrentes decreased its generation due to an operational unavailability
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout the week with a component of baseload generation too, specially from Monday to Thursday. The hourly average production was 7 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 5.6 GW (lower than the week before), with weekly maximum values of around 16.8 GW and minimum values of 1.1 GW, being more relevant on the first half of the week
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- Wind was the first source of electricity during 72% of the week, followed by gas (14%) and hydro (11%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 39% and 76% of total generation, with the bounds higher compared to what was observed in the previous week (33% and 72%). Wind's maximum share reached 56% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 29%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 2 TWh, 99% higher than the previous week
- Solar generation was 0.35 TWh, 65% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 95.1/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 84/MWh
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Spain
EUR 90.8/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 87.9/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market,
Brent crude benchmark saw its first weekly decline in 2025, shedding 5.26% from a near six-month peak of USD 82.63/bbl reached on 15 January. Oil prices declined due to increasing concerns over the effects of punitive tariffs on demand and economic growth in major oil-consuming countries, which adversely affected investor sentiment. This decline occurred despite indications from fundamentals that suggested a tighter global supply. Furthermore, there had been uncertainty as to whether the Trump administration would increase sanctions to other countries, while vowing to expedite permits for new oil and gas production. Finally, China, hit its GDP target of 5% for 2024, although concerns linger about the strength of its economy despite Beijing’s pledge to expand stimulus measures this year. It closed the week at USD 78.5/MWh.
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European gas prices rose EUR 2.815 to EUR 49.702/MWh, a 6% increase from last Friday. Prices were supported by lower storage levels, with European storage at 57.6% capacity, 20.2 percentage points less than last year. Earlier this week, prices hit EUR 50.70/MWh after German operator THE announced a new subsidy mechanism for summer storage injections. EU mandates require storage inventories to be at least 50% full by February 1 and 90% full by November 1. Additionally, the Freeport LNG facility shut down its three production units due to freezing temperatures.
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European carbon prices ended the week 3% higher following a 15-month high on Thursday at EUR 82/t. The Dec 25 has settled at an average price of EUR 77.12/t so far this year, 14% above the average January 2024 settlement price of the previous benchmark, the Dec 24 EUA. Speculative investors have increased their net long position in carbon allowances to its highest level in three years. This week, more than 13.4 million EUAs were auctioned at an average price of EUR 77.58/t with an average cover ratio of 1.71. An additional 11.3 million EUAs are scheduled for auction next week, in the absence of the fortnightly Polish auction.
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Finally, futures showed a mixed performance. Q2 25 supported the highest increase, closing the week at EUR 55.05/MWh (+3.65%). Q3 25 rose slightly, by 1.6%, to end at EUR 89.15/MWh, while Q4 25 remained stable at EUR 87.8/MWh. On the yearly front, cal 26 fell by 2.44% to end at EUR 66/MWh and cal 27 was down 1.27% to end at EUR 58.5/MWh.
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