|
|
VOL 7 | NUM 21 | 21 January 2025
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IBERIA | 13 - 19 January 2025
|
|
|
|
Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Day-Ahead Market weekly average price spiked alongside the wind generation drop
|
|
|
|
The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 133.3/MWh last week, registering a rise of 56% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 85.2/MWh). This weekly average price marked a year-high for 2025, while it was 100% higher than in 2024 (EUR 66.8/MWh) and 255% higher than in 2023 (EUR 37.5/MWh).
|
|
YTD average is EUR 110.8/MWh, 58% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 70.3/MWh) and 65% higher than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 67.2/MWh).
|
|
Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Day Ahead Market
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 5.7%, reaching 6.21 TWh, compared to the 6.17 TWh recorded the previous week. As the previous week, demand kept increasing due to higher heating needs driven by lower temperatures across the Peninsula.
|
|
The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
|
- An important drop of wind generation (- 23.4 pp)
- A subsequent increase of gas generation (+10.3 pp) and hydro (+7.2 pp). Solar PV also increased by 4.5 pp
|
|
Global renewable energy share decreased from 66% to 54.9% since the previous week. This decrease was primarily fueled by the drop in wind generation.
|
|
Generation Mix Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
Variation Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nuclear
|
|
Cogeneration
|
|
Renewable thermal
|
|
Coal
|
|
Combined cycle
|
|
|
Hydraulic
|
|
Wind
|
|
Solar PV
|
|
Solar thermal
|
|
Imports
|
|
|
|
Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spanish DAM kept a similar range during the week, with no clear separation between weekdays and weekends. The maximum price was EUR 225/MWh, reached on Wednesday at 8 a.m. and set by hydro. The minimum price, though still elevated, was EUR 100/MWh, set on Monday at 4 a.m. by renewables, cogeneration and waste.
|
|
French DAM had a similar behaviour to the Iberian prices, with the exception of Wednesday when price spiked more
|
|
The technologies setting the price in the Spanish DAM were:
|
- Hydraulic (including pumping): 58% at EUR 138.6/MWh on average (week before: 61% at EUR 103/MWh)
- Gas CC: 21% at EUR 126/MWh on average (week before: it did not set the price)
- Renewables, cogeneration and waste: 20% at EUR 124/MWh on average (week before: 38% at EUR 57/MWh )
|
|
The SWE grid coupling was 49%, close to the value recorded the previous week, 54%:
|
- Spain-Portugal: 96%
- Spain-France: 51%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 49%
|
|
Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spanish DAM
EUR 133.3/MWh
|
|
Spanish IM
EUR 131.1/MWh
|
|
Portugal DAM
EUR 132.9/MWh
|
|
France DAM
EUR 137.7/MWh
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
|
|
The highlights from last week
|
- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 7.1 GW, having all the available fleet in normal operation
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout the week with a component of baseload generation too. The hourly average production was 7.9 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 7 GW, with weekly maximum values of around 13.7 GW and minimum values of 1.8 GW confirming the use of gas generation for flexibility needs
|
- Hydro was the first source of electricity during 38% of the week, followed by solar PV (29%) and wind (24%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 33% and 72% of total generation, with the lower bound quite lower compared to what was observed in the previous week (48% and 74%). Wind's maximum share reached 46% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 47%
|
|
Solar and wind generation
|
- Wind generation was 1.23 TWh, 48% lower than the previous week
- Solar generation was 0.82 TWh, 84% higher than the previous week
|
|
Generation by technology Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interconnections by country, from Spain
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hourly wind & solar generation
|
|
|
|
|
|
Solar PV Price
|
Wind Price
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spain
EUR 119.2/MWh
|
|
Portugal
EUR 119.1/MWh
|
|
|
|
Spain
EUR 133.5/MWh
|
|
Portugal
EUR 130.6/MWh
|
|
|
|
|
|
*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
|
|
|
|
|
Futures Market & Commodities
|
|
On the oil market, Brent crude oil hovers at 5-month high on supply concerns. The front-month contract for Brent crude North Sea oil closed on Wednesday at USD 82.03/bbl, its highest level since August. US sanctions on Russia's crude exports with a combination of cold weather, falling global inventories and strict OPEC+ member compliance to quotas drove prices higher, while some geopolitical risk eased amid Gaza ceasefire deal, in a region that accounts for one-third of seaborne oil trade.
|
|
European gas prices rose in the beginning of the week as supply risk fears alarmed the market. Europe’s benchmark front-month gas contract closed high on Monday, EUR 48.26/MWh, as Russia accused Ukraine of allegedly attacking the TurkStream gas pipeline over the weekend. Any damage to Europe’s supply infrastructure amid geopolitical conflict, including sabotage, heightens risk and uncertainty in gas markets. Meanwhile, cold weather across Europe continued to drive heating demand, prompting countries to drawdown on their storage supplies. European storage sites were last seen at 63.3%, down 4.9 percentage points week on week and 13.4 points lower than the same period last year. The week closed at USD 46.89/MWh.
|
|
On the European carbon market, the Dec 25 EUA contract traded at EUR 79.26/t, up EUR 4.41/t from last Friday (6% increase). It hit a one-year high of EUR 80.5/t on Friday. Speculative investors’ net long position in carbon allowances rose by 9.4m tons last week to 29m, the highest since August 2022. Over 11.3m EUAs cleared at an average price of EUR 75.46/t with an average cover ratio of 1.66, and around 13.4m allowances will be auctioned next week.
|
|
Finally, futures showed an increasing trend. The largest rise was presented by Q3 25 and Q4 25, reaching EUR 87.75/MWh (+5.34%) and EUR 87.75/MWh (+5.09%). Q1 25 rose by 3.63% to close the week at EUR 53.11/MWh. On the yearly front, cal 26 raised by 1.27% to reach EUR 67.65/MWh, while cal 27 maintained its position ending at EUR 59.25/MWh (+0.42%).
|
Why you are receiving this email
|
You are receiving this email because you are subscribed to our Power Markets Weekly report - IBERIA. If you no longer wish to receive this report, you can opt-out of this email using the button on the right.
|
|
|
|
DNV, Calle Santa Maria Magdalena 14, 28016 Madrid
|
|
|
|
|
This e-mail and any attachments thereto may contain confidential information and/or information protected by intellectual property rights for the exclusive attention of the intended addressees named above. If you have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify the sender by return e-mail and delete this message and its attachments. Unauthorized use, copying or further full or partial distribution of this e-mail or its contents is prohibited.
|
Your
data appears in a file under the responsibility of DNV Maritime and Energy, S.L.U. - NIF: 82800798 Postal address: Calle Santa Maria Magdalena, 14 - Planta 2, 28016, Madrid, E-mail: power-markets-weekly@dnv.com. On behalf of the company we treat the information you provide us with in order to send you market information, information related to our services and invitations to events. The data provided will be kept as long as you do not request the cessation of the activity. The data will not be transferred to third parties except in cases where there is a legal obligation. You have the right to obtain confirmation on whether in DNV GL Services Spain S.L. we are treating your personal data so you have the right to access your personal data, rectify inaccurate data or request its deletion when the data is no longer necessary.
|
DNV Maritime and Energy S.L.U. publishes this weekly report using public information from OMIE, REE y MEFF. This document is for information purposes only. Its partial or total reproduction is authorized while mentioning its source as DNV. Opinions herein expressed are proprietary.
|
|
|
