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VOL 7 | NUM 20 | 14 January 2025
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IBERIA | 6 - 12 January 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average price recorded a 25% decrease due to the wind momentum
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The weekly average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain was EUR 85.2/MWh last week, registering a 25% drop compared to the previous week's average (EUR 113.9/MWh). This weekly price was the same as in 2024 and 11% higher than in 2023 (EUR 76.5/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 99.6/MWh, 60% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 62.4/MWh) and 14% higher than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 87.5/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia rose by 9.3%, reaching 6.17 TWh, compared to 5.6 TWh recorded the previous week. Demand continues to increase due to higher heating needs driven by lower temperatures across the Peninsula.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- A significant rise in wind generation (+16.5 pp), followed by hydro (+0.9 pp)
- A decline in gas generation (-7.8 pp), along with nuclear (-2.7 pp) and solar PV (-1.9 pp).
Imports also decreased by 4.2 pp.
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The global renewable energy share saw a substantial increase, rising from 50.8% to 66%, primarily due to higher wind output.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM prices remained below EUR 150/MWh, with overall lower values on Monday and during the weekend due to reduced demand and strong wind output, which covered the majority of demand. The weekly maximum hourly price of EUR 144.3/MWh was reached on Friday at 6 p.m., set by hydraulic generation, while the minimum of EUR 2.4/MWh occurred on Sunday at 3 p.m., set by renewables, cogeneration, and waste. The daily price spread was particularly high on Thursday and Sunday (> EUR 120/MWh) due to abundant daytime renewable generation followed by a sharp decline during the evening demand peak.
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Frech DAM price mostly followed the Spanish trends except on Monday evening when lower prices were registered in France and on the weekend with significantly higher French DAM prices during the day.
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The technologies setting the price in the Spanish DAM were:
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- Hydraulic (including pumping): 61% at EUR 103/MWh on average (week before: 51% at EUR 128.7/MWh)
- Gas CC: 0% (week before: 14% at EUR 135/MWh)
- Renewables, cogeneration and waste: 38% at EUR 57/MWh on average (week before: 33% at EUR 80/MWh)
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The SWE grid coupling was 54%, substantially higher than the previous week value of 35%, thanks to the higher Spain-France coupling:
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- Spain-Portugal: 92% (week before: 93%)
- Spain-France: 57% (week before: 37%)
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 54%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 85.2/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 87.7/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 85.9/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 89.7/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 6.9 GW, with the 1 GW Almaraz Unit 2 offline for the entire day on Thursday due to an automatic shutdown caused by a turbine protection activation following significant oscillations in the high-voltage grid. The unit began gradually returning to normal output on Friday.
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout the week with an hourly average production of 5.5 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 4 GW, with weekly maximum values of around 10.6 GW and minimum values of 1.3 GW confirming the use of gas generation for flexibility needs.
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- Wind was the first source of electricity during 98% of the week, followed by solar PV (2%)
- The hourly renewable share fluctuated between 48% and 74% of total generation, with the lower band significantly higher than the previous week (17% to 72%), thanks to consistently high wind generation throughout the week.
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 2.4 TWh, 69% lower than the previous week
- Solar generation was 0.45 TWh, 20% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 69.3/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 61.3/MWh
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Spain
EUR 86.4/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 83.7/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, Brent crude prices experienced fluctuations throughout the week, starting with a slight dip to USD 76.19/bbl on Monday and reaching a peak of USD 80.75/bbl on Friday. The price movements were driven by weak market fundamentals, with concerns about oversupply and low demand, especially from China. While there were signals of stimulus efforts in China, uncertainty regarding the potential impact of Donald Trump’s presidency added volatility. US demand was a supporting factor, bolstered by winter storms and strong economic data. Despite some profit-taking, oil prices ended the week on a positive note, driven by reduced supply from OPEC+ and expectations of higher US demand, closing at USD 79.76/bbl on Friday.
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European gas prices have been on a downward trend after hitting a 14-month high of EUR 51/MWh on the first week of January, following the end of Russian gas flows via Ukraine. The Dutch TTF front-month closed at EUR 45.44/MWh on Friday, down by 8% compared to the previous Friday. Key factors contributing to the price decrease include stable Norwegian supply, mild weather forecasts, and relatively low gas demand. Storage levels are currently at 70%, 15 pp lower than last year, while LNG imports and pipeline flows have remained stable.
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On the European carbon market, the first EU carbon auction of 2025 cleared at EUR 71.02/t, a four-month high, but with weak demand. Carbon prices dropped this week due to factors like renewed auction supply, weak gas prices, and profit-taking. Speculative investors increased their long positions, signaling a positive outlook, but the market remains volatile. However, carbon prices remained sensitive to gas market fluctuations, with gas prices softening further throughout the week.
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Finally, futures showed a general downwards trend overall. Q3 25 and Q4 25 both went down by 4% reaching EUR 83.3/MWh and EUR 83.5/MWh, respectively. Q2 25 slid by 3.3% reaching EUR 51.3/MWh by the end of the week. On the yearly front, cal 26 reached EUR 66.8/MWh by the end of the week (-3.9%) and cal 27 closed at EUR 59/MWh on Friday, a loss of 3.7% compared to the week before.
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