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VOL 7 | NUM 19 | 8 January 2024
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IBERIA | 30 December 2024 - 5 January 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average price started the year surpassing the EUR 100/MWh barrier
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 113.9/MWh last week, registering a rise of 5.2%, compared to the previous week's average (EUR 104.1/MWh). This weekly price was 30% higher than in 2023 (EUR 87.7/MWh) and 93% higher than in 2024 (EUR 58.9/MWh)
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YTD average is EUR 113.9/MWh, 82% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 62.6/MWh) and 30% higher than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 87.5/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Day-Ahead Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 4%, reaching 5.6 TWh, compared to the 5.38 TWh recorded the previous week. Cold temperatures in the Peninsula pushed up demand despite Christmas festivities.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- An increase of wind generation (+2.9 pp)
- Decrease in solar PV (-2.8 pp) followed by hydro (-0.5 pp) and gas (-0.4 pp)
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Global renewable energy share reached 50.8%, close to the value reached the week before (51.8%).
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM showed some volatility along the week, with important drops on Wednesday (1st of January) and Sunday, being days of lower demand. The maximum hourly price of EUR 172.7/MWh was reached on Monday at 8 p.m. set by hydraulic generation. The minimum hourly price of the week, EUR 10.7/MWh, was reached on Wednesday at 3 p.m. set by renewables, cogeneration and waste.
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French DAM price presented a similar tendency, with even sharper price drops on Wednesday, reaching EUR 5.9/MWh at 4 a.m.
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The technologies setting the price in the Spanish DAM were:
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- Hydraulic (including pumping): 51% at EUR 128.7/MWh on average (week before: 46% at EUR 123.9/MWh)
- Gas CC: 14% at EUR 135/MWh on average (week before: 16% at EUR 134/MWh)
- Renewables, cogeneration and waste: 33% at EUR 80/MWh on average (week before: 34% at EUR 78/MWh )
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The SWE grid coupling was 35%, the same value recorded the week before. Additionally, there was a decrease in the Spanish-Portugal coupling value, which decreased from 100% to 93%. This was especially noticeable on Wednesday, during solar hours.
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- Spain-Portugal: 93%
- Spain-France: 37%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 35%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 113.9/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 112.1/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 114.3/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 90.1/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 7.1 GW, with remained constant along the week, with the complete nuclear fleet available
- Hydraulic generation provided basic flexibility needs throughout the week with some baseload generation when wind output was lower. The hourly average production was 4.1 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 5 GW, with weekly maximum values of around 12.6 GW on Monday at 8 p.m.
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- Wind was the first source of electricity during 43% of the week, followed by solar PV (18%) and hydro (10%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 17% and 72% of total generation, compared to the values observed in the previous week (15% and 75%). Wind's maximum share reached 60% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 51%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 1.2 TWh, 37% lower than the previous week
- Solar generation was 0.7 TWh, 10% higher than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 99.8/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 101.6/MWh
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Spain
EUR 102.2/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 93.2/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices rose driven by optimism over China's economic stimulus plans, including a record 3 trillion-yuan bond issuance for 2025 and a shift toward looser monetary policy. Brent crude ranged between USD 74.26 and USD 75.95/bbl. Additional support came from US crude stock drawdowns and Middle East tensions. However, uncertainty around potential US tariffs on Chinese goods under the incoming Trump administration could weigh on global growth and demand.
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European gas prices hit a 14-month high last week, with the Dutch TTF front-month peaking at EUR 51/MWh. Key drivers included the halt of Russian gas flows via Ukraine, colder weather forecasts, and lower storage levels (72% full, 14 points below last year). Speculative buying also contributed to the price surge. Market could undergo potential corrections if temperatures ease.
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European carbon prices surged to a seven-month high, with the Dec 25 EUA contract peaking at EUR 75.89/t, driven by rising gas prices, colder weather forecasts, and a pause in EUA auctions during the holidays. The halt of Russian gas flows via Ukraine further supported the rally. Auctions are set to resume on 7 January, potentially easing prices. The average EUA price for December 2024 was EUR 66.53/t, down 12% from the previous year.
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Finally, futures presented an overall upwards trend. Q2 25 closed at EUR 53/MWh, up by 8.2% compared to the previous week. Q3 25 closed at EUR 86.8/MWh, up 7.8%. Q4 25 ended the week reaching EUR 87/MWh. On the yearly front, cal 26 hit EUR 69.5/MWh while cal 27 closed at EUR 63/MWh.
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