Weekly Market Analytics Chile Vol 11 Num 52

VOL 11 | NUM 52 | 18 July 2025

Power Markets Weekly

CHILE | 7 - 13 July 2025

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Oil set the peak prices on Sunday due to low hydro availability and limited gas supply

Global SEN operation

[Note: July 10 marginal costs were unavailable and therefore excluded from this report.]

The average price in Polpaico was USD 81.6/MWh, marking a 31% decrease from last week and a 60% increase compared to the same period last year. This is the third consecutive week of declining prices.

Marginal cost evolution in Polpaico during past years

In terms of the energy mix, it remained stable overall, except for wind and hydro sources. The first technology increased its share by 3.7 pp., while hydro decreased: dam by 2.5 pp. and run-of-river by 0.9 pp.

It is to note that dam stored energy levels stayed below the ones registered on the same week of 2024 and 2023, with plants like Rapel and Pehuenche reporting depletion levels, which contributed to the high dispatch cost of the technology, reaching a weekly average of USD 96/MWh.

Additionally, Rucúe, a run-of-river power plant located in Charrúa area that had been operating at around 90 MW, experienced a failure on Wednesday, rendering it inoperative at least until next month. Finally, although gas participation remained stable, Argentinian gas supply suffered some limitations in the week, particularly affecting Nehuenco power plant.

BESS participation remained generally stable (+0.3 pp.). However, an unusual discharge pattern was observed in the SING area, driven by daytime injections from BESS del Desierto. This behavior is likely due to the fact that the plant is still under testing prior to reaching commercial operation. [Note: After the realease of the weekly report this data was corrected in a definitive version, showing no injections during daytime for BESS del Desierto].

Peak demand of the week occurred at 12 PM of Wednesday, reaching 11.9 GWh/h. At the time, 50.8% of the demand was supplied by wind and solar, while thermals contributed with 30.5% and hydro with 16.3%.

Generation Mix

Variation

Power range by energy sources (average prices)

Learn more about this chart

Generation evolution

Geothermal

Cogeneration

Biomass

Coal

Gas

Oil

BESS

Dam

Run-of-river

Wind

PV Solar

CSP

Main transmission congestion, that led to decoupled areas, were as follows. The 500 kV Nueva Pan de Azúcar – Polpaico line experienced daily congestion during solar hours, except on Saturday, decoupling the system from Polpaico to the south. On Saturday, the 500 kV Alto Jahuel – Lo Aguirre line congested during solar hours, decoupling the system south from Polpaico.

Further south, congestion affected several 220 kV lines throughout the week. On Tuesday night, the 220 kV Charrúa – Santa Clara line was congested, causing prices to drop to zero in areas south of Charrúa. From Wednesday to Friday, the 220 kV Río Malleco – Cautín line experienced congestion during solar hours, and on Sunday night, the 220 kV Lastarria – Ciruelos line also became congested. These events decoupled Puerto Montt from the rest of the system, forcing the area to rely on oil-fired generation to meet the demand.

It is to note that on Sunday, before the decoupling of 220 kV Lastarria - Ciruelos line, the system was coupled, but given some gas restrictions, low wind availability and higher demand than expected, a mix of oil power plants were needed to meet the demand, reaching the peak price of the week at 19 PM of Sunday that varied from USD 175.2/MWh in Crucero to USD 246.9/MWh in Puerto Montt.

Marginal cost evolution

Crucero
USD 55.4/MWh

D. de Almagro
USD 56.5/MWh

Pan de Azúcar
USD 58/MWh

Polpaico
USD 81.6/MWh

Charrúa
USD 84.8/MWh

Puerto Montt
USD 94.1/MWh

Solar and Wind production & BESS dispatch

Solar generation remained stable this week (-0.5%|-1.4 GWh). The highest plant factor was seen in Crucero area with 18.4%, while the lowest was in Puerto Montt area with 7.7%. Average system plant factor was of 15.4%.

Wind generation highly increased this week (+28.9%|+65.8 GWh). Charrúa area had a significantly high plant factor from Tuesday to Saturday, but had almost no generation on Monday and Sunday, reaching an average plant factor of 54.6%, the lowest plant factor was seen in Pan de Azúcar with 14.6%. Average system plant factor was of 28.9%.

BESS injections increased their load shifting to 40.0 GWh, an increase of 5.9 GWh. The highest injections were seen in Crucero with 33.8 GWh, while the lowest were seen in Pan de Azúcar with just 38.1 MWh.

This week’s curtailment rate was 4.2% for wind and 10.5% for solar, reaching an average curtailment rate of 7.4% (similar to last week’s average curtailment rate of 9.7%).