Weekly Market Analytics Chile Vol 11 Num 49

VOL 11 | NUM 49 | 27 June 2025

Power Markets Weekly

CHILE | 16 - 22 June 2025

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Unavailability of 500 kV line Nueva Pan de Azúcar – Polpaico leads to prices surpassing USD 300/MWh in the whole system.

Global SEN operation

The average price in Polpaico was 12% higher than last week and 136% higher compared to one year ago.

Marginal cost evolution in Polpaico during past years

In terms of the generation mix, many variations were seen in the system: gas decrease its share by 3.4 pp. due some unavailabilities and to restrictions on argentinian gas supply affecting among others, Nehuenco power plant. Solar participation decreased by 2.8 pp., given important transmission limitations that affected the whole system.

As a result, other technologies had to increase their share: coal by 2.3 pp., run-of-river by 2.2 pp., dam by 1.9 pp. and oil by 0.3 pp. The increase in dam was relevant even with depletion declarations by Ralco, Pehuenche, and Rapel. Dam average variable cost reached USD 95/MWh, which represents an increase of USD 23/MWh compared to last week.

Peak demand of the system was at 1 PM on Monday with 11.6 GWh/h, when Solar and Wind contributed with 24.3% and 8.9% of the mix, respectively.

Generation Mix

Variation

Power range by energy sources (average prices)

Learn more about this chart

Generation evolution

Geothermal

Cogeneration

Biomass

Coal

Gas

Oil

BESS

Dam

Run-of-river

Wind

PV Solar

CSP

Regarding transmission constraints: around 9 AM of Monday, a failure occurred in the second circuit of the 500 kV line Nueva Pan de Azúcar – Polpaico. Then at 11 AM of the same day, the first circuit of this line also opened. On Wednesday, at 3 PM, the first circuit was recovered, but the second one stayed out for the rest of the week, which limited the operational constraints of the line.

As a result, Monday and Tuesday saw marginal costs that surpassed USD 250/MWh through the whole system, with a peak of USD 378/MWh at 5 PM of Monday on Polpaico, price set by oil power plant Cementos Bío Bío. It is important to note that Tuesday marginal costs are preliminar, and the prices from Pan de Azúcar to the north are not consistent with CEN data which indicates that during solar hours NRCE sources were setting the price during in the area.

Other congestions were the usual ones in 220 kV lines Charrúa – Santa Clara and Lastarria – Ciruelos, decoupling Puerto Montt area.

Marginal cost evolution

Crucero
USD 68.1/MWh

D. de Almagro
USD 66.2/MWh

Pan de Azúcar
USD 66.2/MWh

Polpaico
USD 139.3/MWh

Charrúa
USD 134.0/MWh

Puerto Montt
USD 124.5/MWh

Solar and Wind production & BESS dispatch

Solar generation decreased this week by 50.3 GWh (mostly due to the above-mentioned transmission limitations). The highest average plant factor was on Crucero area (13.0%) while the lowest was on Puerto Montt (5.1%).

Wind generation decreased this week by 22.6 GWh. It was particularly low on Tuesday at midday across the entire system, except in Diego de Almagro. A similar situation occurred on Friday, but this time it was Pan de Azúcar that kept a high generation. The highest average plant factor was on Puerto Montt area (33.5%) while the lowest was on Crucero (15.2%).

BESS injections increased this week by 7.1 GWh, reaching a total displaced energy of 35.8 GWh, which is 24.8% more than last week.

The conditions on the system reflected on curtailment rates: 10.6% for wind (28.1 GWh) and 31.3% for solar (98.3 GWh), reaching an average curtailment rate of 21.8%. This represented a weekly increase in curtailment of 96.0 GWh compared to last week.