Weekly Market Analytics Chile Vol 11 Num 43

VOL 11 | NUM 43 | 16 May 2025

Power Markets Weekly

CHILE | 5 - 11 May 2025

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Renewables lost ground while transmission issues spiked prices.

Global SEN operation

Polpaico average price was USD 67/MWh, 26% lower than last week’s and 13% higher than the same week last year.

Marginal cost evolution in Polpaico during past years

This week, renewables reduced their share in the energy mix: solar dropped by 4.2 pp and wind by 1.0 pp. Conversely, thermal sources increased their participation, despite diesel going down by 0.3 pp, with gas up by 3.2 pp and coal by 0.6 pp.

The system’s maximum demand reached 11.2 GW on Thursday at 12 PM, with wind and solar contributing 37.3% of the generation. The highest wind and solar participation occurred on Monday at 2 PM, covering 66.2% of the 10.9 GW demand.

Generation Mix

Variation

Power range by energy sources (average prices)

Generation evolution

Geothermal

Cogeneration

Biomass

Coal

Gas

Oil

BESS

Dam

Run-of-river

Wind

PV Solar

CSP

On Monday, prices were coupled across the system, with a peak just above the USD 150/MWh mark. On Tuesday, northern zones decoupled during solar hours due to congestion on the 500 kV line Nueva Pan de Azúcar - Polpaico. This issue persisted throughout the week, as the second circuit of the 500 kV line activated its protections on Wednesday at 8 PM, limiting the first circuit’s power flow to 400 MW (around 22% of its normal capacity) for the rest of the week.

On Thursday, a significant price divergence occurred between the northern zones and the rest of the system, as diesel units set the price from Pan de Azúcar southward. This led to the week’s highest price, recorded in Puerto Montt at USD 206/MWh. Over the weekend, on Saturday, the Puerto Montt zone experienced a decoupling in the opposite sense, dropping prices to zero while northern nodes had higher prices. This ocurred due to a congestion on the 220 kV line Charrúa - Santa Clara and high wind availability in the centre south (48.2% wind plant factor in Charrúa).

Marginal cost evolution

Crucero
USD 53.1/MWh

D. de Almagro
USD 52.2/MWh

Pan de Azúcar
USD 52.2/MWh

Polpaico
USD 66.6/MWh

Charrúa
USD 64.7/MWh

Puerto Montt
USD 63.9/MWh

Solar and Wind production & BESS dispatch

Solar generation decreased by 62.1 GWh (-18.4%) this week, with a system-wide average plant factor of 14.8%. The highest solar plant factor was observed in Crucero (16.9%).

Wind generation also declined, producing 11.8 GWh less than the previous week (-6.0%). The average system plant factor was 18.5%, with Crucero again leading at 20.6%.

Regarding storage, BESS discharges totaled 34.2 GWh, matching last week’s output. The average BESS plant factor was 16.2%, peaking in the Diego de Almagro zone at 22.1%.

This week, solar curtailment reached 19.8%, an increase of 15.6 pp from the previous week. Wind curtailment rose to 8.4%, up by 5.7 pp. The combined curtailment rate stood at 15.5%, 3.6 pp higher than last week.