Weekly Market Analytics Chile Vol 11 Num 39

VOL 11 | NUM 39 | 18 April 2025

Power Markets Weekly

CHILE | 7 - 13 April 2025

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Reduced solar participation in the mix due to maitenance on 500 kV line Nueva Maitencillo - Nueva Pan de Azúcar, combined with higher dam variable costs, increased prices from Nueva Pan de Azúcar to the South

Global SEN operation

The average price in Polpaico was USD 104.2/MWh, which is 30.2% higher than last week and 74.6% higher compared to one year ago.

Marginal cost evolution in Polpaico during past years

Weekly demand went up to 1.61 TWh, with renewables comprising 57.4% of the mix.

Regarding the variation in the mix, despite a 1.5 pp. and 0.2 pp. increase in wind and dam, respectively, renewable participation decreased due to a fall in the share of solar by 5.6 pp. and a reduction of run-of-river by 0.3 pp. This decrease in renewable participation, coupled with a rise in demand, led to an increase in thermal participation: gas by 2.5 pp., coal by 1.0 pp. and oil by 0.5 pp.

In terms of variable cost and given that dam stored energy continue to decrease, its variable cost reached USD 88.6/MWh (14.7% higher than coal).

Peak demand reached 10.7 GWh/h at 9 AM on Thursday. At that time renewables represented 71.6% of the supply, with solar, wind, run-of-river and dam contributing 42.9%, 9.4%, 9.2% and 8.1%, respectively.

Generation Mix

Variation

Power range by energy sources (average prices)

Generation evolution

Geothermal

Cogeneration

Biomass

Coal

Gas

Oil

BESS

Dam

Run-of-river

Wind

PV Solar

CSP

Maintenance on 500 kV line Nueva Maitencillo – Nueva Pan de Azúcar (the line that caused the blackout of past 25 February), led to congestions in the mornings during all week except on Thursday. This congestion decoupled the system from Pan de Azúcar to the south.

The 500 kV line Nueva Pan de Azúcar – Polpaico was also congested, in the early morning on Wednesday and at midday on Thursday, decoupling the system from Polpaico to the south.

The 220 kV line Lastarria – Ciruelos was congested in the early morning on Monday, Tuesday, Saturday and Sunday, and also in the afternoon on Saturday, decoupling Puerto Montt from the system.

The peak price was USD 293.0/MWh in Puerto Montt on Wednesday at 9 AM, set by Los Guindos 2 oil power plant. In that moment, the demand was 10.3 GWh/h being 34.2% supplied by thermals: 10.4% by coal, 17.1% by gas, 5.5% by oil and 1.3% by cogeneration.

The total hours with zero prices were 64 in Crucero and Diego de Almagro, 17 in Pan de Azúcar, 11 in Polpaico and Charrúa and 12 in Puerto Montt.

Marginal cost evolution

Crucero
USD 75.8/MWh

D. de Almagro
USD 74.7/MWh

Pan de Azúcar
USD 98.8/MWh

Polpaico
USD 104.2/MWh

Charrúa
USD 102.3/MWh

Puerto Montt
USD 107.7/MWh

Solar and Wind production & BESS dispatch

Solar generation was 321.3 GWh, which is lower than last week (-21.1% | -86.2 GWh). Pan de Azúcar had the highest plant factor with 20.0%, while the lowest was in Puerto Montt, with 10.4%. The average solar plant factor in the system was 17.4%.

Wind generation was 210.1 GWh, which is higher than last week (+14.1% | +26.0 GWh). Puerto Montt had the highest plant factor with 27.9%, while the lowest was in Polpaico, with 18.3%. The average wind plant factor in the system was 20.9%.

BESS dispatch was 30.4 GWh, which is higher than last week (+3.1% | +907 MWh), thanks to the first injections of BESS del Desierto from Friday. Diego de Almagro had the highest plant factor with 21.2%, while the lowest was in Pan de Azúcar, with 6.8%. The average BESS plant factor in the system was 16.6%.

This week’s curtailment rate was 7.5% for wind and 25.4% for solar (17.4 GWh and 105.6 GWh, respectively), reaching an average curtailment rate of 18.9% (higher to last week’s average curtailment rate by 7.9 pp).