Weekly Market Analytics Chile Vol 11 Num 35

VOL 11 | NUM 35 | 21 March 2025

Power Markets Weekly

CHILE | 10 - 16 March 2025

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The end of the summer and operational limitations leads to an increase in gas participation.

Global SEN operation

Average price in Polpaico was 21.4% higher than last week and 90.2% higher compared to one year ago.

Marginal cost evolution in Polpaico during past years

Weekly generation went down to 1.68 TWh, with renewables comprising 59.6% of the mix.

Despite a 2.6 pp. decrease in coal, thermal generation increased due to the rises in gas by 4.4 pp., cogeneration by 0.6 pp and oil by 0.3 pp.

On the other hand, renewable generation decreased: wind by 1.2 pp., run-of-river and solar by 0.5 pp. and biomass by 0.3 pp. BESS dispatch also decreased by 0.1 pp. Dam participation remained stable.

Consequently, this week was marked by an increase in gas share, replacing some of the renewable participation.

Peak demand reached 11.6 GWh/h at 16:00 on Wednesday. At that time renewables represented 73.5% of the supply, with solar, wind, run-of-river and dam contributing 47.8%, 9.9%, 9.4% and 4.1%, respectively.

In terms of variable cost, dam stored energy continued to decrease, which led to a rise of USD 10/MWh. Similarly, BESS dispatch energy increased by USD 6/MWh. In contrast, cogeneration decreased by USD 9/MWh.

Generation Mix

Variation

Power range by energy sources (average prices)

Generation evolution

Geothermal

Cogeneration

Biomass

Coal

Gas

Oil

BESS

Dam

Run-of-river

Wind

PV Solar

CSP

The total hours with zero prices were 66 in Crucero and Diego de Almagro (5 hours less than last week), 0 in Pan de azúcar, Polpaico and Charrúa (17 hours less than last week) and 44 in Puerto Montt (25 hours more than last week).

This week started with Puerto Montt decoupled on Monday early morning and on the night of Thursday due to congestions on 220 kV line Charrúa – Santa Clara. In addition, 220 kV line Lastarria – Ciruelos saturated on Tuesday and Sunday mornings, and on Saturday afternoon.

500 kV line Nueva Maitencillo – Nueva Pan de Azúcar decoupled the system from Pan de Azúcar to the south every morning throughout the week and at midday on Tuesday. This was caused mainly by the restriction of operational capacity set due to the blackout few weeks ago.

The peak price was USD 247.9/MWh in Crucero on Friday at 21:00, set by Los Espinos and El Peñon oil power plants. In that moment, the demand was 10.7 GWh/h being 51.8% supplied by thermals: 18.8% by coal, 28.2% by gas, 4.2% by oil and 0.7% by cogeneration.

Marginal cost evolution

Crucero
USD 56.5/MWh

D. de Almagro
USD 54.6/MWh

Pan de Azúcar
USD 81.3/MWh

Polpaico
USD 80.5/MWh

Charrúa
USD 78.3/MWh

Puerto Montt
USD 58.1/MWh

Solar and Wind production & BESS dispatch

Solar generation was 371.7 GWh, which is lower than last week and the week before the blackout (-3.2% | -12.1 GWh and -17.8% | -80.7 GWh, respectively). Charrúa had the highest plant factor with 28.7%, while the lowest was on Diego de Almagro, with 29.4%.

Wind generation was 204.7 GWh, which is lower than last week but higher than the week before the blackout (-10.1% | -23.0 GWh and +1.1% | +2.1 GWh, respectively). Charrúa had the highest plant factor with 40.9%, while the lowest was on Polpaico, with 9.6%.

BESS dispatch was 27.9 GWh, which is lower than last week but higher than the week before the blackout (-6.4% | -1.9 GWh and +6.4% | +1.7 GWh, respectively). Diego de Almagro had the highest plant factor of 21.9%, while the lowest was on Pan de Azúcar with 4.2%.

Therefore, solar generation remains signifcantly lower than the previous week, mainly due to the end of summer and the restriction of the operational capacity of the affected 500 kV line Nueva Maitencillo – Nueva Pan de Azúcar, even though wind generation and BESS dispatch are starting to reach similar levels to the previous week of the blackout.

This week’s curtailment rate was 11.5% for wind and 21.0% for solar (27.2 GWh and 100.2 GWh, respectively), reaching an average curtailment rate of 17.9% (lower to last week’s average curtailment rate by 1.6 pp).